Monday, January 3, 2011

BOLT ANALYSIS: WEEK 17: FORECAST=MURKY WITH SOME HAZE

The 2010-2011 season officially ended for the Bolts yesterday, a week after it really ended. Yesterday’s sloppy, somewhat sad affair was just a statistic really. There were some good things, some bad things, some frustrating things, and some exciting things in the win yesterday. Most of all, of course, we are left with two things: 1) A sense of disappointment that the playoffs will begin without us, and 2) A sense that there is more of this feeling in our collective future. Yes, followers, I must say that any optimism we might feel for next season has to be tempered by the reality that this team has an uncertain future. Perhaps put in a different way…maybe the future is just all too certain….a decent team, flirting with being a very good team…but falling short. That has been our curse for awhile now, and it may be that way for at least another year.




I read a funny line that the only thing the Chargers victory over the Broncos achieved is a tougher schedule and a lower draft pick. Well, although that is true, I have to say that going out with a winning record is important…if only for optics and general team confidence. I won’t dwell much on the game yesterday…it was pretty ugly after all. But, this is the ANALYSIS so I must provide it:



Some good things: Phillip Rivers threw to 10 different receivers for well over 300 yards again. Shawn Phillips showed you why he is a real gem…busting up some plays from start to finish, Kaeding kicked 4 long field goals in the Mountain Air. Jackson and Floyd had circus catches.



Some bad things: Special Teams dismal again on the defensive side, another kickoff return, a blown onside kick, terrible punts by Scifres. Crosby simply must be fired..there is no alternative. Lack of containment on Tebow. The defensive could not find him or tackle him once they did.



Some frustrating things: Again, incredibly bad time management and indecision on the part of the coaching staff. Three timeouts gone by the 4th quarter…for what? Giving up 5 sacks…really? Rivers is the franchise…to have him sacked 5 times in a “meaningless” game is not good.



Some exciting things: Mathews three nice TD runs. The kid has a nice mix of speed, strength, and balance. His three runs were all great…showcasing each of these. He still fumbled the ball twice and was bottled up much of the time, but he made yards without his fullback or Tolbert and looked good. Cason returning punts. Although you really cannot have your starting corner returning punts, it sure was exciting to watch some plays on special teams for a change. Sorry Darren.



That is about it in a nutshell. We finish 9-7...strangely the only team in the League with that record. One game out of the AFC West lead..one game out of the playoffs.



Because this will be the last ANALYSIS of the season…lets just spend a brief moment, followers, looking back. I know you are all tired, and ready for the off-season, but you must look back to understand how to look forward. Some interesting points:



The Chargers finish 2010-2011 ranked #1 in BOTH defense and offense. Truly an amazing statistic and one that unfortunately will be quoted and overused for a long time. Also, one that you can be sure will be used as constant justification as to why the coaching staff must be retained. Those of us who watch the games know that these statistics are meaningless. When you fall behind by double digits in 5 games (New England, Oakland twice, St. Louis, Seattle) you will end up with a lot of yards. When you fumble more than any other team in the League…you will end up with a lot of yards. And, on the flip side, when you trail by those amounts, the other team can go into a vanilla offensive shell…not needing more yards or points to hold on and win. In addition, the Chargers seemed to thrive in the games they dominated…racking up ridiculous statistics when things were going well against teams like Arizona, Kansas City, Denver, and Jacksonville. However, when the chips were down…this team folded. Losses down the stretch to overmatched Oakland and Cincy were unacceptable. Is there something positive to take from these strange dual #1 rankings? Of course there is…we are “good” on both sides of the ball. But as you all know…#1 in BOTH offense and defense was worth #18 in overall record this year.



Special Teams. This concludes the single worst special teams season anyone has ever seen. Five blocked punts, 5 TDs on kickoff returns, terrible field position, bad punting, blown coverages, and terrible returns by Sproles all year. ‘nuff said…it was the reason we lost at least three games.



Coaching and Management. To look back, we must also mention coaching and management. We already have been told that nothing will change in 2011-2012, but it was evident that this team was not motivated by their coaches, the punishment of VJ and McNeil took its toll, and the team expected results from players who did not perform. Worse yet, there was no improvement from Week 1 to Week 17 in terms of clock management, stupid blown assignments, mental mistakes, and sleepwalking to start games. That is coaching…plain and simple. To be fair, the team employed 74 different players this year..tied for a NFL record. Especially painful was the lack of receivers week in and week out. I get it….it is tough to maintain consistency with new faces each week. But, it was not the new faces who lost games to Seattle, St. Louis, KC, and Oakland….it was mental mistakes and lack of preparation. It appears that this lack of accountability will, unfortunately, continue.



OK, OK. Stop looking back. The ANALYSIS must also look forward.



The crystal ball is murky my friends. Will there even be a 2011 season? What will happen with the strike? Will there even be a Draft? Nobody knows at this point. Assuming there is a season…we will have a tough schedule: New England, NY Jets, Miami, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago, Kansas City (2), Oakland (2), Denver (2). This ain’t the NFC West anymore folks.



Assuming there is a season, we will have some tough choices to make on contracts and personnel. Who do we keep out of this list of folks who have no contract now? V Jackson, Floyd, Tolbert, Sproles, Cooper, Weddle, Burnett, Siler, Volek, Clary, and others. Will we go with the status quo…or will there be a bloodletting? Big offseason pickups? Nobody knows.



Will our other “incompletes” pan out? Will Larry English ever be the player we thought? Is Luis Castillo worth keeping around? Will Gates get healthy again? Will VJ play if we don’t give him a long term deal?



What we do know is that there is a real chance that football will either not happen next year or will be changed in some way. Despite the uncertainty, constant readers, the ANALYSIS will be there, cutting through the murk, ready to serve. Ready to snap the ball again…and try to get to the grand prize….one of these years. Happy New Year.