BOLT ANALYSIS: THE DRAFT...A BEGINNING AND THE END

Hey all. Welcome to the 2013 Draft Review Spectacular. This episode of the ANALYSIS will also be the last…at least for now. I will not lean towards the dramatic…I will not tug on your heartstrings….I will not go overly overboard to try to make this last session between us emotional and memorable. Like all good bloggers out there…it will just be the facts, man.

So, the DRAFT happened last week. I was on a beach in Hawaii but you know the ANALYSIS was there…watching, and analyzing. I will start with a summary. As has been wildly over-reported, this was the first Draft for our young ‘uns…Telesco and McCoy. However, they have both been a part of successful drafts for other teams in the past. It is really not rocket science, right? You look at your team needs, you see if you can get some value, you rate players all over the country, and then you choose players. What never seems to get reported, however, is that you do one more thing: You hope. You hope your hunches are right, you hope the player stays healthy, and you hope he fits on the squad.

So what happened last week? Well, let’s start with Draft Needs. Despite what all the pundits and dummies will tell you, the ANALYSIS knew that the Chargers needed the following: Offensive linemen, cornerbacks, linebackers, a safety, and a nose tackle. The consensus for months was that the Chargers would take a lineman with their first pick. There were three “elite” tackles available and two “elite” guards available. You had to figure that with the Chargers picking at 11…one of these 5 players would be available. You really could not figure that 5 of the first 10 picks would be an offensive lineman…however…..

That is just what happened. With left tackle being the key need for the Chargers…to replace the ridiculous Jared Gaither…those within the inner sanctum must have just about soiled themselves to see 3 of the first 4 picks going with left tackles.  The soling must have continued to see Guards go at picks 7 and 10. Are you kidding? Nobody used to take guards until the 4^th round…now they are going in the top 10. Either the game has changed or this draft just happened to be really really weird. So, the Bolts came up at 11. Here were their options…they could take the number 1 linebacker available, the number 2 cornerback available, the number 1 safety, the number 1 nose tackle, OR they could take the number 4 tackle and number 6 offensive linemen overall. What did the young ‘uns do? They took the number 4 tackle. DJ Fluker became the number 1 pick of the boyz. A 340-pound monster who won 2 national championships with Alabama. This was not the popular pick. Pundits love to use the term “elite”. DJ Fluker is not elite. First of all, he is a RIGHT tackle. All of the world knows that left tackles are elite…right tackles are just, uh, needed. But, the Chargers maintain he was the best available. The pundits say he was worth between pick 14-20. The Bolt Nation in the blogosphere hated the pick  initially..thinking it un-sexy.

What does the ANALYSIS say?:  The Draft in my opinion is about finding starters. How many guys get drafted high and never start? The answer is many. This pick is a starter. Yes, he is a right tackle. No, he is not sexy. No, he is not the highest rated guy. But he is not a risk. This guy will start from day 1 in the NFL for the Chargers. He will replace Jeromey Clary (who may move to guard) and he will be a starter. Given the Chargers last 5 years of picks, this is a good deal.

Which brings us to Round 2 and the feel-good story of the Draft. The Boyz pulled a major move and got the Sports world talking by moving up 7 picks to trade with the Cardinals and pick Manti Te’o. Yes, the man who got Catfished. The guy who was in headlines forever by being duped and lying about it. The guy who had his draft stock fall dramatically because of a horrible game he played in the national championship and because of his “character” issues during the hoax. What was overlooked by other teams perhaps is the following: prior to the national championship game and hoax, Manti was the most decorated defensive player coming out of college in years. Maybe ever. He won awards for everything. He was listed as a top 5 pick in everyone’s draft board. Was much of this the relentless campaigning of the Mother Church (aka Notre Dame)? Of course. Was he as good as all this hype? No. But lets look more closely. He was one of the several highest rated players out of high school in the Country. He played 4 years at a HIGH level for the Mother Church. He was singled out by the ND coach as the “best player and best man” he had ever coached. His teammates loved him. He was a guy most teams were drooling over. Until that Alabama game. He was exposed that night. He was shown up by the best team in the country. The pressure got to him, and he looked overmatched. He had a bad game. The pressure following the hoax was massive…and he had a bad combine. However, even with all this press, every draft pundit still had him in the first round. It did not change the fact that he was the “best player available” for a number of picks before the Bolts took him. The initial reaction was shock and awe..but:

What does the ANALYSIS think?: I like it. The kid will work hard. The kid has something to prove. He will take relentless crap from the fans, from his teammates, and from his rivals. But, he will overcome it. What did I say about the draft finding starters? If he does not start in Game 1 I will be shocked. He will be next to Donald Butler and I think that will be a good thing. It was kind of fitting that I was about 1 mile from where he grew up (In Laie on Oahu) when the pick was made. I’m rooting for him.

In round 3, the BOYZ got a guy who was also a former consensus number 1 pick. Keenan Allen out of Cal. He busted up his knee about ¾ through the season and that was what prevented him from going in the first half of the first round. There were NO top receivers out there. He would have been a top 15-20 pick. Instead, we get him 76^th. Pretty good, man. He is big, strong, and I watched him tear up the Pac 12 for two years before his injury. Nice job. He comes back from his injury (a risk to be sure) and he is a big boost to our anemic receiving corps.

We gave away our 4^th round pick to get Te’o. In the 5^th round, we grabbed Steve Williams, a small but very athletic cornerback from Cal. This guy is a great athlete, just short. I am guessing he competes for our slot corner position, where he will match up with third receivers and running  backs out of the backfield. A guy who has no character issues, was a team leader, and was very impressive in his skill set. There are a million players like this, but he has a chance to play quite a bit in our broken secondary.

Our 6^th round pick was another Williams..Tourek Williams. An outside lineback and pass rusher out of Florida International. Another guy who has the ubiquitous “high motor” and will be a big body who can try to rush the QB. You can never have too many of these guys, especially when we have gotten rid of Shawn Phillips, Antwan Barnes, and others. He will add some depth..and maybe push our weak former first round pick, Larry English.

Finally, we took Brad Sorenson, a QB out of Southern Utah in the 7^th round. Kind of weird, considering there were some QBs from big schools available. But, this is simply a guy to push to be a backup one of these days. Its depth and building, nothing more.

So that’s it. After some separation, the Chargers are getting positive reviews from the pundits. But screw them, what does the ANALYSIS think? The ANALYSIS does not give draft grades. The ANALYSIS views a draft based on fit and based on starters. I really believe we drafted two starters in Fluker and Te’o. I believe we drafted two players who will see the field plenty in Allen and S. Williams, one player who adds depth and competition in T. Williams, and one guy who makes our starting quarterback just a little less comfortable in Sorenson. I like it. I’m not going to get too excited because we need a lot of help. But if we are looking at this as a long term plan…and we need to…this is a good group.

There you have it, gentle readers. That is the review you needed and expected. Hope Springs Eternal…it always does. Lets look forward to the next season with no expectations. No predictions. Lets just have some hope. Hope that we put a team on the field that is fun to watch, that plays hard, and that competes. That is all we can ask for. And, followers, I will miss you all. The ANALYSIS has enjoyed its run. It has enjoyed the Monday breakdowns. For now, and as always, Go Bolts! 

BOLT ANALYSIS: THE STATE OF THINGS AND THE END OF AN ERA

Hello All! It has been quite a long time since the ANALYSIS checked in with ya’ll. We have all been riveted by the tragic events in Boston and Texas so allow a diversion to some brainless sports news. We are now on the cusp of the beginning of the NFL season. I know...you are looking around the Sports World..you see the NHL Season coming to an end, the NBA playoff matchups set, baseball has started, the Kruckeberg family is still basking in the afterglow of yet another cash-in on Final Four bracketology...the Kentucky Derby looms. Who cares about football? Well, the ANALYSIS does. The NFL makes the release of their schedule a massive event. The release of the schedule to a breathless sports nation last night brought few surprises, but at least it got the football juices flowing again. It makes what you are about to read more important, and more timely.

Before we get to the schedule however, we must discuss what has occurred since the last posting. In the last installment, I explained the situation with our new coach and GM. McCoy and Telesco, two 40-somethings who have taken over for the fossilized Norv Turner and the anti-Christ (like) figure of AJ Smith. I penned my hopes for a change in attitude that these new youthful leaders could impart. I wondered about some of the key decisions that would be made in the coming offseason and free agency period.  Well.....followers.....it has been very, very interesting. This offseason and free agency period (to date) can only be described as: Scorched Earth. The new kids on the block have taken a sledgehammer to this team. If any of us were clinging to same last, sad, vestige of hope that our current lineup was NFL-suitable, you may now release hope.  At the conclusion of the season, the ANALYSIS pondered the future of many Charger starters and key players, and whether they would remain with the team. Under Norv and AJ, we had always had a penchant to hold on to existing players (even against their will-and with some painful exceptions) and not spend a bunch of money on outside free agents. This ended last season with AJ’s sad and desperate attempt to sign Jared Gaither (bust), Robert Meacham (bust), Eddie Royal (bust), and Jarret Johnson (OK player). The ANALYSIS opined that the Bolts would try and retain a couple of their free agents and continue to try and build around them. The three players that held the most interest were Antoine Cason, Louis Vasquez, and Vaughn Martin. Decisions about those players would probably give a strong indication which way we were going as a team. Well...take a look at what has happened since McCoy and Telesco took over.

The Chargers have released the following starters: Atari Bigby, Randy McMichael, Takeo Spikes, Antonio Garay, and Jared Gaither.  Of these released players, only Garay (Jets) has signed with another team.

The Chargers also allowed the following players to be signed elsewhere without any sort of offer or fight:   Louis Vasquez (Broncos-4 years), Antoine Cason (Cardinals-1 years), Antwan Barnes (Jets-- 3 years), Aubrayo Franklin (Colts), and Vaughn Martin (Dolphins).

Of this group, only Vasquez received what can be considered a big contract (from our Rivals the Broncos no less). The rest of these guys are pickups for depth and maybe spot starters.

Perhaps most telling however, is the list of players who are former Chargers that now have no contract. The Chargers have shown no interest in these guys, NOR HAS ANY OTHER TEAM TO DATE:

Tyronne Green, Quentin Jammer, Shaun Phillips, Brandyn Dombrowski, Dante Rosario, Jackie Battle, and Corey Lynch. 

These guys may come back...or get signed by another team later in the process, but the point is that nobody wanted them now.  The only player offered a deal by the Chargers was Denario Alexander, last year’s surprise receiving star. We will know in the next few days whether he sticks around.

So, like I said...Scorched Earth! VERY telling is the fact that these players have not been picked up. It tells you....they were not very good, were getting paid too much, and are not the guys you build around. You might say, OK..well we dropped all of the Norv/AJ players, that must mean we are spending lots of money on Free Agents that McCoy and Telesco like?  Uh, well, check out this murderers row of players we have signed:

Richard Goodman (WR), Doug Rinehart (OG), Rich Ohrnberger (OG), Jarius Wynn (DE), Cornelius Brown (DE), Deon Butler (WR),  King Dunlap (OT),  Danny Woodhead (RB), Dan DePalma (WR), Dallas Walker (TE),  Mike Windt (LS), Nick Novak (K), Derek Cox (CB), John Phillips (TE).

Heard of any of ‘em?  Yeah, not really. Danny Woodhead did very well with the Patriots...and Derek Cox is a true starter at cornerback (and probably a pound for pound clone of Cason) but other than that this is a group of backups and fill ins. At best.

So, where does this leave the team? The ANALYSIS has NO...CLUE. No clue folks. They are certainly no better than they were last year, and perhaps not too much worse? Don’t know. What is the Plan? What is Telesco doing? I would say this is a true attempt to begin to build again through the Draft. It is a long range plan to get rid of all of AJ and Norv’s dead weight...to get rid of dead money paid to athletes who are now released, and to slowly build the team back through smart draft picks. That is the only, and I mean only, explanation. Again, Scorched Earth policy.

Which brings me to next week’s Draft. The NFLs three day love affair with itself. Usually, the ANALYSIS provides incisive, daring, and, yes, somewhat amazing prognostics on the Draft. I would stack up the ANALYSIS’ track record against any pundit in identifying positions and even players that the Chargers would go after. This year...not gonna happen. The Chargers really have zero areas that do not need work. Think of the offensive line....two starters remain and they don’t like one of them (Clary). Think of the secondary...only Weddle remains from last year as a starter. Think of the linebacking corps...Donald Butler a bright spot but we are still waiting for Larry English and Melvin Ingram and Jonas Mouton to make a dent. Defensive line OK but can Cam Thomas cut it as a starting nose tackle. What about the offense...does anyone believe that Rivers can still excel in this mobile and increasingly fast League? Does anyone believe Ryan Mathews is the answer at RB? Does anyone think Gates has years left?  I have no answers to these questions followers. I simply must say that the Draft will be as much as a surprise to the ANALYSIS as it will be to you.

So..now to the schedule. Well...again, the ANALYSIS used to spend time running down the list of teams on the docket...thinking about matchups...and guessing (I mean selecting) wins and losses. I would often ask for your best estimate of the team’s finishing record. Again...not gonna happen. Our last three seasons have gone 8-8, 9-7, 7-9. We lose to horrible teams...we have beaten great teams. With so few of our old players remaining...I aint guessin’. I do know that we open at home on Monday Night Football against the Texans and I do know we play another Monday Night game against Indy (also at home). Other than that folks, you wont see the Chargers on primetime. I would say we must look at this as a year of low expectations with the hope (always the hope) that we will win some games.

Which brings me to my final point. I will be back with a post-Draft ANALYSIS that will set the stage for the 2013 season. But, with that, I must announce that my Post-Draft ANALYSIS will be my last. Yes...the ANALYSIS is folding the tent.  I stated late last year that the ANALYSIS is much like a shark, swimming through the monochromatic depths of the open ocean. It must move forward, or it dies. After nearly 5 years of providing the type of coverage that readers demand, nay, RELY on in their daily lives, I must move on. I have done all I can do...I cannot continue to move forward. There are other blogs to write, other topics to cover.  Just like Sting disbanding The Police at the height of stardom, or Harper Lee never writing a follow up to “To Kill a Mockingbird”....the ANALYSIS is going out on top.

Do not despair, followers. I still love the Chargers. I always will. I was the guy listening on the radio in my parked car on a late rainy Oregon night to a Charger broadcast during an 8-8 season because it was not on TV. I was the guy who had his stomach in a knot as I painted my house listening to John Carney kick a 54 yard field goal against the Chiefs to go 1-15 and avoid a 0-16 season. I was the guy who dutifully monitored the TV whilst in Hawaii tracking the Chargers 2004 draft. I am that guy. And I will always be a fan. But, the ANALYSIS has run its course. As the Chargers turn the page with new coaches and GM, so does the ANALYSIS.

Ironically, I will be in Hawaii again during the 2013 Draft. Upon my return, I will fill you in on what the Chargers did, and what it means for the future. Hope, no doubt, will spring eternal again.