BOLT ANALYSIS: DRAFT RECAP

Well, for once there was no head scratching. There was no slack-jawed stare at the television as someone’s name popped up that had Mel Kiper scrambling for his notes. There was no collective “Huh??” echoing through Madison Square Garden. At pretty much every round in the Draft over the last few days, the Chargers selected a player that made absolute sense. So, as the draft-geeks and roster-watchers rejoice, the ANALYSIS will take its customary approach to systematically breaking down some of the finer points of our new Bolts.

First, let’s start with the ANAYSIS’ list of pre-draft needs (sent in an email the day of the draft):

Priority Needs:  Strong Safety (Gotta be able to tackle and cover a Tight End), Outside Linebacker/Defensive End (Gotta get pressure on the QB and get off the field on 3^rd downs), Offensive Line depth (Gotta protect Rivers).

Depth Needs: Tight End, Defensive Line, Cornerback

Would be Nice for backups down the line: Running Back, Quarterback

Now…let’s see….Strong Safety—yep, 3^rd Round. Outside Linebacker/Defensive End—yep, 1^st round. Offensive Line depth – yep, 5^th and 7^th round. Tight End – yep, 4^th round. Defensive Line—yep, 2^nd round. Running Back—yep, 7^th round. Not bad. So, the ANALYSIS was pretty much spot-on with the exception of a Cornerback and a backup QB. Let’s go to the picks.

Melvin Ingram – By all accounts, this guy was the best OLB in the Draft. He was ranked no lower than the 12^th overall pick by every Mock Draft I could find in a 10 minute search. Never stops, good pass rushing moves, can play different positions, has speed, was a team captain. The talking heads on ESPN called it the “best pick of the draft outside of the top 2 quarterbacks”. Wow. Well, I am happy for all the accolades on this guy, but the truth is he really does fit the Chargers’ system. A guy who adds depth, speed, strength, and meanness. Sounds good to me. The only knock I can find is that he has “short arms”. Yeah, so does Mike Tyson.

Kendell Reyes – Another guy who got glowing reviews. A big, strong, fast defensive lineman from Connecticut who, again, really has no negative comments associated with him. Another team captain, who was a disruptive force on the line. He is versatile, can play inside as Nose Tackle, Defensive Tackle, or even out on the end. This guy is a clone of last year’s #1 pick Corey Luiget. Corey did not have a dynamic rookie season, but he is solid on the line and another 300 pound dude who can play a bit can never hurt. The knock on him is that he “does not get a lot of sacks”. Well, I think the point of an interior lineman is to hold up the O-line so the linebackers can maul the QB. Let’s hope that works out.

Brandon Taylor – The Chargers did a nice job in getting this guy in the 3^rd round. There really were only 3 safeties who were highly rated this season. The first, Mark Barron, was taken 7^th overall. The second, Harrison Smith, was taken at the end of the first round. The Chargers got the big guys they needed with the first two picks and then made a trade with Miami to move up and grab Taylor. A team captain (see a trend?) from LSU, this kid played corner and moved to safety. He is a very good tackler and a premier special teams player who will probably backup their new safety Atari Bigby (my favorite name on the Chargers right now). Again, no real negative knocks other than he “lacks elite speed”. So do most players. We have needed a safety for years now to line up next to Weddle. He has good potential and is a good character guy. Sounds good.

After the first three picks (all defensive as you can see) the Chargers Brass was reportedly ecstatic. They got the guys they wanted. They then turned to the offense and made several additional picks that made sense.

Ladarius Green – A tall, athletic, tight end from a small school (Louisiana Lafayette) who really impressed coaches at the Combine. He has not played against great competition, but he had huge numbers and he supposedly is an amazing athlete with great hands. Needs to learn how to block a bit more but playing behind Gates with a chance to grow into the role is a great plan. Getting him in the 4^th round was even better.

Johnnie Troutman – A massive Offensive Guard from Penn State. The draftniks did not have this guy “graded” out too highly. One of these guys they say has “great strength and good speed but does not play with great technique”. Well, whatever technique he used…the numbers are actually kind of cool. Did not give up a sack or a quarterback pressure his entire senior year. Had some ridiculous numbers like no sacks in 1,100 snaps or something like that. Whatever. He is a 325 pound road grader who will backup at Guard…where we need depth. Don’t need a superstar here. Remember, Kris Dielman was not even drafted.

David Molk – This one is interesting. In the 7^th round (the Bolts had no 6^th round pick because of their trade to get Brandon Taylor) they took this Center from Michigan. This guy was a highly rated Center but dropped because of some medical issues. However, he was the winner of the national award for best center in the Country (something called the Rimington award) and he won for the most reps in the weightlifting contest of any player this year. So, I guess he is pretty good and pretty damn strong. He can come in and play behind Hardwick…who probably only has 2 years left or so. He was “graded” to be drafted in the 4^th round or so…so maybe this one pays off down the line.

Edwin Baker – With their final pick, the Bolts take this running back out of Michigan State. A tough, hard-nosed running back who might try and take the place of Mike Tolbert. Keep in mind, Tolbert was not even drafted and now he is making big bucks. Added for depth, Baker had a great year as a sophomore with a ton of yards at TDs, but came out early after needing to split time with another running back. Seems like a guy who adds depth and competition to our running back corps. Again, fine with me.

So, there you have it. A bunch of guys who seem to fit really well. No weird ones. They always say that you cannot really evaluate a player until he has been in the League a few years but on paper this seems positive. After the draft, there is always a run on free agents. The Chargers signed no fewer than 20 free agents to come to camp and try to make the team. These players are long shots, but remember guys like Gates, Dielman, and Tolbert were not drafted so you never know. Couple of interesting names now on the Roster:  Jarrett Lee, Quarterback of LSU who was a solid starter and smart kid for a National Champion contender. Logan Harrell, a Defensive End from Fresno State who terrorized marginal opponents in the WAC, and Christian Tupou, a big Defensive Tackle from USC who looks the part. Who knows? Maybe some roster spots there.

In the bigger picture…what I see a real press toward is Scheme Diversity. This is a term you will see in the ANALYSIS a lot this year. Let me say it again……Scheme Diversity. If you take the last two drafts, the Chargers have now taken 7 defensive players in the first three rounds. The three guys this year and Luiget, Jonas Mouton, Marcus Gilchrist, and Shareece Wright last year. All of these guys are versatile and can play a couple of positions. It is clear that with these 7, the Chargers hope to create mismatches, keep guys fresh, and give different looks to the opposing offenses. Add to these draftees the free agents such as Jarrett Johnson and, hopefully, gone are the days of our sad, tired defense getting rolled on third down because we are running the same guys in the same ways, with no deception. Same on offense…hopefully, gone are the days of Rivers standing there hoping Gates or Jackson gets open. We should have a slew of receivers, tight ends, and running backs who can slot in and out. Sounds good here…looks good on paper…who knows?

We won’t know for a while, followers, if all of these picks will make a significant difference. What we do know is that we are faster, tougher, and deeper than we were last year. That cannot be a bad thing.

Have a great summer. The ANALYSIS will be back as we begin the pre-season. And remember, the ANALYSIS may be quiet…but the ANALYSIS never sleeps.

BOLT ANALYSIS: A HISTORY OF THE DRAFT

This post is on the building of a team.  I am one of those guys who enjoys the NFL Draft. I don’t stay up all night, reading draft notes and watching film. I don’t subscribe to Mel Kiper’s “Big Board” or Rivals.com’s “Player Ratings”.  But I do enjoy it. I enjoy the scavenger hunt-quality it has; the game of trying to find guys out there that fit your team from a position standpoint and from an attitude standpoint. I enjoy it as much for its hits as for its misses. So many times, the “can’t miss” player is a horrible bust. And so many times, the undrafted guy becomes a star. That is pretty cool. The Chargers’ drafts have been an extremely telling indicator of the success of the team. I did a little looking around and the results are very interesting in showing why we had years of futility, followed by a period of success, followed by what appears to be a significant fall from grace. Read on for a bit of Charger history.

We start following the Super Bowl year of 1994-1995. The team Bobby Beathard assembled at that point was a mix of key draftees  (Natrone Means, Leslie O’Neal, Junior Seau, Chris Mims, Rodney Harrison, etc.) but just as many were cast-offs from other teams that just gelled with the Chargers (Stan Humphries, Tony Martin, Ronnie Harmon, Linebackers Gibson and Griggs). Beathard had long been cast as a genius in the Draft; finding guys out of small schools who fit well and excelled. He built a great team in Washington and then, in a few short years, had the Chargers in the Super Bowl. The problem was, after 1994 and the Chargers rise to the Super Bowl as the “youngest team in the League”, he bought into his own so-called “genius” and starting going on weird hunches and grabbing guys who just made no sense. He also employed the same maddening tactic year after year: trading away the next year’s first round pick for a guy he really liked in the second round. This was all ego. Check the drafts from 1995-2000. We had a grand total of ONE first round pick in those six years….and guess who it was? Ryan Leaf.  All these hunch plays? Busts.  All these small college guys…no good. One year, 1997, we took two guys from North Carolina A&T and two guys from South Carolina State….where!?

History will show that after that Super Bowl year, Bobby Beathard drafted 6 more years worth of players for the Chargers.   In those 6 years, Beathard drafted a total of 50 players.  Incredibly, only 6 of those players even saw significant, meaningful playing time. They are:

Terrance Shaw, Cornerback (’95)

Terrell Fletcher, Running Back (’95)

Craig Whelihan, Quarterback (’95)

Ryan Leaf, Quarterback (’98)

Jamal Williams, Nose Tackle (’98)

Damion McIntosh, Offensive Line (’00)

In looking at this list, it can safely be said that only 2 players out of these 50 had a significant, positive impact on the team:  Jamal Williams was a stud at NT for many years and Terrell Fletcher was a good solid third down running back and playmaker. That is it, an unbelievably low 4% success rate. And I am setting the bar pretty low here…I am just commenting on players who saw a lot of time and made a positive impact over the course of their time as Chargers. I would like to include someone like McIntosh, who was a pretty good lineman, but he spent most of his career elsewhere. Or Terrance Shaw or Craig Whelihan, who both tried hard, but their contributions were just too minimal. There are entire drafts (1996, 1997, and 1999) where not a single player made an impact or even had a positive contribution. Amazing.  And, the results bore that out. We were the worst team in the League over that stretch, even going 1-15 in the 2000 season. That was it for Beathard, who the Spanos family stubbornly held onto despite the fact the game and the rest of the League had passed him by. Hmmmmm….sounds all too familiar to you all, doesn’t it?

Once John Butler and AJ Smith took over, look at the next 6 years. During this period, the exact same number of players were drafted as the previous 6 years (50). Of these, 25 players had a positive impact and saw significant playing time, a massive change in success rate from 4% to 50%. These players are:

LaDaininan Tomlinson, Running Back (’01)

Drew Brees, Quarterback (’01)

Carlos Polk, Linebacker (’01)

Quentin Jammer, Corner (’02)

Tonio Fonoti, Offensive Line (’02)

Ben Leber, Linebacker (’02)

Terrance Kiel, Safety (’03)

Drayton Florence, Corner (’03)

Matt Wilhelm, Linebacker (’03)

Mike Scifres, Punter (’03)

Philip Rivers, Quarterback (they actually drafted Eli Manning) (’04)

Nate Kaeding, Kicker (’04)

Nick Hardwick, Center (’04)

Shaun Phillips, Linebacker (’04)

Michael Turner, Running Back (’04)

Shane Olivea, Offensive Lineman (’04)

Shawne Merriman, Linebacker (’05)

Luis Castillo, Defensive Lineman (’05)

Vincent Jackson, Wide Receiver (’05)

Darren Sproles, Running Back (’05)

Scott Mrczkowski, Offensive Lineman (’05)

Antonio Cromartie, Corner (’06)

Marcus McNeil, Offensive Lineman (’06)

Tim Dobbins, Linebacker (’06)

Jeromey Clary, Offensive Lineman (’06)

The drafts in 2004-2006 show you clearly why we were among the best teams in the league at that point. Even players drafted in the late rounds in these years were solid pros, and some were all-pros (Turner, Sproles).  Add in non-drafted players such as Antonio Gates and Kris Dielman and free agent additions like Randall Godfrey, Donnie Edwards and Keenan McCardell and we were pretty formidable. Clear to see that some years of good drafts put us in the garden spot.  Now, it is also clear that better players make other players better. Players like Terrance Shaw or Damien McIntosh would have surely made the list had they played alongside better players. But, it is what it is, you need to look at cold hard facts.

Since the ’06 Draft and 06-07 playoff teams, we have struggled in the Draft. It should really be no surprise to any of us that our team’s overall performance has dipped significantly. Here is an accounting of players from our last three drafts that have made a positive contribution.

Eric Weddle (’07)

Antoine Cason (’08)

Jake Hester (’08)

Louis Vazquez (’09)

Vaughn Martin (’09)**

Tyronne Green (’09)**

If we take the 2007-2009 drafts, we are looking at 19 players selected and 4 that have had a positive impact (although Cason is struggling). This is a 21% success rate. I put asterisks next to Vaughn Martin and Tyronne Green. I think both of these guys might be positive contributors, but as backups forced into action by injuries, their body of work is just too small. Additionally, I just cannot include draft picks like Brandon Siler or Legadu Naanee on the list. Guys like that were good bit players, but the bottom line was that they were released rather than re-signed to another contract. I think it is too early to grade out the 2010 draft but Ryan Mathews and Donald Butler are starters and Darrell Stuckey and Cam Thomas are still on the team and playing so who knows. Too early also to see if 2011 draftees like Corey Luiget, Marcus Gilchrist, Vincent Brown, Jonas Mouton, or Shareece Wright will end up as positives. A bigger problem than the 21% success rate I see is in the utter lack of IMPACT players. I define IMPACT players as guys who make a real difference…guys who change the attitude of a team. Since those great drafts in 04-06, who would you put on a real impact list since? Weddle? Maybe.  All of the others might fit into the system, but they are not making a true IMPACT. We have not drafted a real difference maker since 2005. In addition, we really have not added any IMPACT free agents. Part of AJ’s belief system (read: ego) is that he puts a lot of stock on his own picks rather than bringing in outside big names. Who can we point to in recent years that has really made an impact after being brought in? Answer: Not one player. That is the truth. I would like to add Kevin Burnett, but really, we did not re-sign him and his contributions were marginal. When looking at the lack of IMPACT players….It is especially clear when you look at our first round draft picks over the past years.  Please review the last 11 first round picks and note the recent drop off.

2001 – LaDainian Tomlinson – Enough Said.

2002 – Quentin Jammer – Has been a solid, upper tier corner for his entire career. Never an all pro, never great, he has just been steady every year. A great character guy and a great teammate too. 

2003 – Sammy Davis – One of the worst picks of the AJ Smith era. Chargers took two corners and a safety with their first three picks this year. The smart money was that the Chargers would take Troy Polamalu…he was a So Cal guy and wanted to play here. Davis rarely saw the field and when he did he was awful. Polamalu, taken a few picks later, has been one of the best players in the League.

2004 – Eli Manning. Became Philip Rivers—Enough Said

2005—Shawne Merriman – Arguably the best defensive player in the league (except maybe Ray Lewis) for his first three years. Then steroid withdrawal, injuries, and character issues ruined his career.

2006 – Antonio Cromartie – Huge entrance into the League and massive first two years but a head case who is a spotty player and a solid #2 corner at best with the Jets.

2007 – Buster Davis – A complete bust as a player. Never made an impact, even in preseason games. Cut this year and to my knowledge not playing anywhere. Rivals Sammy Davis as worst AJ pick ever.

2008 – Antoine Cason – A very frustrating player. He had a good rookie year followed by a bad 2009 where he lost his job. A very good year in 2010 and looked to be on the verge of being mentioned among the top corners out there. Had big slips of confidence and just some horrible games this past year. Jury is out, but he does not have much time. 

2009 – Larry English – Another complete bust so far. He was a reach as a small college player with good character whom they thought could make the leap and actually replace Merriman. He never did. Often injured and always ineffective, he is out with a broken foot and he has one more year to do something positive. Sad thing is, unlike Buster Davis, he has tried really hard.

2010 – Ryan Mathews – He has shown flashes of being a great back but he struggles with injuries, fumbling and confidence. I think the team is hurting his confidence by continually subbing him in and out when he is healthy. Despite this, he has been strong recently and if he continues to hold onto the ball, it looks positive. We shall see. 

2011 – Corey Luiget – Have not seen enough of him to know. He has not been as quick to make an impact as the team had hoped. Still, played in all 16 games as a rookie and probably will be a useful, if not dynamic, player.

So, there you have it. Hardly the list of impact players you hope for out of the first round. There was a period where I think any draft geek out there would have said the drafts that AJ and John Butler had made from 2001 through 2006 were the best in the League. No longer.  Hopefully, the end of this year will bring an infusion of new blood. You cannot rely completely on the Draft of course, and the recently completed free-agency period is probably more important.  But a period of solid drafting where several positive players and perhaps an IMPACT player is added each year is critical. Look at teams like New England, San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore, Pitt, and the Packers. Just a series of solid drafts that continue to build depth and attitude like the Bolts did in the middle ‘00s.  We just don’t have it right now. Let’s get it back.

POSTSCRIPT:  My favorite Charger draft story must be told. It isn’t Ryan Leaf, because in 1998 we needed a QB and he was very, very good in college. I remember seeing an interview with Marty Schottenheimer, then coaching the Chiefs, who said more than half of the NFL coaches and GMs favored Leaf over Peyton Manning. The Chargers did not. They wanted Manning. But, the Colts were not budging and the Chargers needed a blockbuster. Most everyone thought they both would succeed. And, my favorite Draft story is not the spurning of dog-killer Mike Vick in 2001 and trading down for LT and Drew Brees. It also isn’t watching Eli Manning’s sad sack, jughead face in 2004 as he was forced to hold up a Charger jersey on national television with his big frown after having been drafted against his will.  No, my favorite Draft story happens in the year 2000. Head coach Mike Riley liked a QB in that draft.  We did not have a 1^st round pick that year (as usual under Beathard) and Riley knew that Beathard would not let him take a QB early since they were still trying to make Ryan Leaf work out. So, he let the second and third rounds go. Reportedly (and I have a great source) he BEGGED Beathard to just give him a draft pick in the 4^th round. He wanted to take a kid out of Michigan named Tom Brady to be a backup to Leaf.  Beathard would not give him either of the team’s 4^th round picks. Riley figured that Brady would be gone but he was still there in the 6^th round and supposedly it got heated as Riley was still begging.  Beathard would not give him a  6^th round pick either, and Brady ultimately was taken toward the end of the 6^th round. Here are the three guys the Chargers took with those picks that Beathard would not give his head coach, despite Ryan Leaf’s epic failures in his first two years:

4	Trevor Gaylor	Miami (OH)
4	Leonardo Carson	Auburn
6	Shannon Taylor	Virginia

Ever heard of ‘em?  Enough Said.