BOLT ANALYSIS: PARANORMAL ACTIVITY

It is far beyond the physical now. The Bolts 2012 season has reached the metaphysical...or at very least...the paranormal. Paranormal is a general term (coined ca. 1915–1920^[1][2]) that designates experiences that lie outside "the range of normal experience or scientific explanation"^[3] or that indicates phenomena understood to be outside of science's current ability to explain or measure.^[  The ability to fail exhibited by the Chargers is amazing and, in the end, can only be described as paranormal. We have often said, here on the sage pages of the ANALYSIS, that we defy any fan of another team to demonstrate more painful and brutalizing methods of losing than our Bolts. That challenge still stands. Yesterday, we saw one that defied logic to an extent only seen since.....well....a few weeks ago against the Broncos.  That 35-unaswered-point comeback by Denver a few weeks ago was Epic. Yesterday’s loss, however, was equally crazy.  While the 35 point give-up to Denver may have been painful, it was over a period of an entire half of football. This one yesterday was one play. One play that, in itself, describes the mystic level our loser-ness has reached.

But first we must set the table. Yesterday’s game was blacked out here in the Southern California region. How many of you cared? How many of you even saw the game? Because we get Direct TV’s Sunday Ticket, we have the Red Zone Channel. And because the Red Zone Channel does not care about blackouts, and because there were only three afternoon games, we got to see the majority of the game. Lucky Us.

For three and a half quarters yesterday, the Chargers played a good game. Their defense held the Ravens to next to nothing with a mix of sure tackling, good pass defense (amazing!) and a decent pass rush that resulted in a handful of sacks. Our depleted offense (more on that later) even drove the ball well a couple of times, with Rivers hitting Denario Alexander for a few good ones, and Malcom Floyd grabbing a TD pass. A 10-0 lead at the half was a good result. Rivers played smart. No turnovers, threw the ball away when he needed to, took sacks when he had no choice. The other shoe did not drop until much later, with the Bolts holding on to a 13-3 4^th quarter lead. Now, before we go any further, the Ravens are fancied as a pretty good team. Even with some major injuries on defense, they have a good record, have beaten some good teams, and seem to play to their strengths. For whatever reason, the Bolts always play the Ravens hard. Last year the Ravens came to Qualcomm red-hot and the Bumbling Bolts killed them...winning easily. It seemed that this year might be the same. It was 13-3 and the Ravens were not moving the ball. But, we are in the land of the other shoe dropping so you knew it would. A long drive and a touchdown made it 13-10 but we fought on, bringing the game and its defining moment just after the two-minute warning.

A penalty, a sack and fumble, and generally very good defense had put the Ravens in a 4^th down and 29 to go from their own 35 yard line.  Just had to stop them from getting 29 yards. They could get 10-15-20 or even 25 and it would have been OK. Just not 29. Well, you know what happened by now. A little flip screen to Ray Rice and you thought, OK, he will get some yards but our linebackers will be back there at about the 20 yard mark waiting for him. Uh, no. Our players were BEHIND the first down marker, except for the ones who “pass rushed” and were out of the play. Ray Rice gained 30 yards on the play. You really cannot draw this stuff up. Even though the ANALYSIS felt the spot was terrible, you cannot script it. The look on Norval’s face said it all. And, being Charger fans, you knew what was next. A drive for a game-tying field goal. Check. Offensive ineptitude in Overtime. Check. Giving up a game winning drive. Check.

I’m not going to talk about player performance, because none of you care anymore. All I have seen in my inbox from any of you lately is a tumbleweed blowing by and a silent, cold wind. I’m also not going to talk about what they can do differently next week. Because I understand that they have a number of new injuries and these are to key players like Donald Butler, Eric Weddle, and others. We have already lost Jared Gaither to season-ending Injured Reserve. Good riddance. I am not sure if they put him on IR because he really can’t play anymore this year, or because they are sick of dealing with him. Regardless, he is a bust and was a terrible decision. With Gaither and fellow starter Tyronne Green out, we had a hideous offensive line and we will have this same line for the rest of the year. Uh Oh. We are going to see a bunch of fill-ins from here on out.

I know now that we are all just focused on losing. Losing now for a better chance of winning later. That is our hope as fans now, although it is a dangerous hope. We are 4-7. I said early in the season it would take a losing record to get rid of Norv. I still think that and I think it is going to take more than just losses to get rid of AJ. We are embarrassing and are being treated as such in the media. I really do believe it will take losses of this caliber to truly blow things up. A tight OT loss to the Ravens gives the Spanos family too much fuel to say “the guys are still playing hard”. A give-up on 4^th and 29 puts it in a different realm. We need to stay in that realm folks...the paranormal realm. It is painful to watch, but as we have discussed, it is tough love, and it is needed.

BOLT ANALYSIS: AJ 2013-GET OUT THE VOTE!

It is official. The Bolts are broken. As if any of you did not already know that, the pathetic display at Denver yesterday was the exclamation point. Don’t let the final score of 30-23 fool you. This was a beatdown, plain and simple. We have no working parts right now on offense, and it is safe to say now that nearly every decision made by our General Manager in the offseason (and the past several seasons) was wrong. The ANALYSIS always waits for a reliable sample of information before drawing conclusions. Ten games into the season, I think we know what we have. We have won 4 games, and those have come against Kansas City (2), Oakland, and Tennessee. That earns the Chargers the worst strength of schedule mark in the League. We have lost 6 games, including two to in-conference rivals The Mannings. The last several losses have been so woeful that the ANALYSIS has actually struggled with new content on a weekly basis (hard to believe!). I try, followers, I try to find a nugget of hope in these games. I try to find something interesting to say. It is not easy. But, the ANALYSIS must soldier on, at least until the end of this season. We all have our mission, and I will deliver, unlike our sad franchise.

I can begin with something bright-ish to talk about. The Defense started the game well....tackling nicely, controlling Manning. When Gilchrist deflected a pass into Weddle’s arms and we went up 7-0...you had to feel kinda’ good, right? It was against the run of play, for sure, but you had to feel OK. They continued to play hard throughout the first quarter, but, slowly, inexorably, the Mannings began to move. A touchdown to tie the score. An interception by Rivers. Another score. And another. And, after halftime, another.  Before you really knew it (and I was outside in the hot tub and playing a little soccer in the back yard for part of it) the game was 24-7. Yet, it really was not just the fact that we were down that far. It was the fact that we had the following on offense: 9 punts, 1 interception, and 1 fumble in 11 possessions. That, folks, is about as bad as I have EVER seen our offense. Every piece is inoperable.  Rivers looks hideous, the offensive line is abysmal, Mathews cannot get a seam anywhere, the receivers cannot get open. Nothing. Nada.

A nice play by Shawn Phillips for a safety gave us a little life, and a TD made it look respectable. But another Rivers interception and another Rivers fumble kept us out of it. The late-game heroics of Denario Alexander notwithstanding (and he really has been great), it was amazing that the final differential was only a TD. We were blown up folks.

So, we now must begin the campaign in earnest to fire AJ Smith and start over. I think even with a, say, 6-10 finish, it is not a sure thing that we fire EITHER Norv or AJ. I give it a 50/50 chance. Now, I hear your squeals of outrage. But, think about it, the Chargers are owned by the Spanos Family. Key positions within the organization are held by Spanos Spawn. Positions such as Director of Scouting and other managerial spots. The Bizarre Love Triangle of Dean Spanos/Norv Turner/AJ Smith will be difficult to break up. It is always difficult to dump a lover, much less two. The ANALYSIS has always struggled with that himself. But, just for kicks, let’s (briefly) look at the horses AJ has hitched himself to:

Jared Gaither – Given huge contract despite history of injuries and inconsistency. Uh....missed 6 of 10 games and played spotty in the others. This was a huge risk, because AJ enlisted no depth at the position, and it has backfired.

Robert Meacham – Given big contract to be the Team’s #1 Receiver. Probably the worst pick up of all. A joke of a player who clearly flourished in the Saints spread offense but is dismal in Turner’s offense.

Jarrett Johnson – Given big contract to be starter as outside linebacker. Solid player. That’s it.

Eddie Royal – Given big contract to be #1 slot receiver and punt returner. Been invisible and cannot seem to get open. Not part of the offense.

Malcom Floyd – Given big contract extension for being a nice guy and a decent player. Never has shown consistency as a #1 option. He is a good #2 or 3, at best.

Ryan Mathews – Mortgaged entire draft three years ago to move up and grab Ryan. In his third year, he is healthy now yet has scored only 1 touchdown rushing and is average at best. Won’t call him a bust yet, but we are getting there.

Larry English – Former #1 draft pick who is just not a good player. Utterly overmatched as a professional athlete.

Philip Rivers – Yep, I have to say it. AJ’s career with the Chargers will be defined by Philip Rivers. He jettisoned Brees to keep him and he has given him the massive contract. Philip has responded by regressing tremendously. However, he is our QB through the 2015 season at this point. He clearly does not trust his protection, does not trust his receivers, and does not trust Mathews. The schemes that Norv has created no longer have the confidence of the team leaders and that is not good. There were entire seasons where Philip took the team on his back and won games. It is a shame they did not have their current (decent) defense during those years. They may have done well. All we can hope for is a new regime and a new system that energizes Philip and brings back some confidence. Otherwise, we are in for many more painful games.

Now, let’s review the obvious players he has cast away for reasons known only to him.

Darren Sproles – Let me see if I have the math correct:  Pay Darren $7 million a year as franchise tag player for two years then balk at a $14 million contract for 4 years guaranteed? Yep, makes sense to me. Without this security blanket, Philip Rivers has been lost.

Vincent Jackson – Despite holdout and some bad behavior, bottom line is that he is an elite receiver who is clutch and doing good work in Tampa. Sometimes you need to swallow your ego and sign a guy. This was that guy. Again, made Philip a MUCH better quarterback.

So, OK, even if Spanos gets it right and starts over, we are in bed with all of these guys for a long time unless new Management decides we can cut bait and move on (recommended).

Thus ends my campaign to fire AJ. If you agree, please vote. We need to take at least one red state to make this happen. I’m not sure if any of my readers live in a red state but you know who you are. This is a sad chapter folks, and I fear things will get sadder before they improve. But, in traditional ANALYSIS fashion, I will end on a positive note. This week is Thanksgiving, and the Bolts do not play on Thursday. This will give you all time to give thanks for what you have, and not have your digestion and family time spoiled by the Chargers. Have a nice Holiday!

BOLT ANALYSIS: THE SONG REMAINS THE SAME

This is getting easy to write. Too easy.

I have always viewed the ANALYSIS much like a pelagic shark...it must move forward at all times or it dies. Right now, I feel a sense of déjà vu each time the ANALYSIS takes shape. Like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, the same thing keeps happening over and over again. I can take a previous ANALYSIS, penned months or even years ago, dust it off, and place it in front of you. It goes a little something like this:

Chargers start fast, make some nice plays, score some points. Quarterback is hot. Defense seems solid enough. Bonehead play sets Chargers back. Team cannot react, cannot stop the bleeding. Coaching flies out the window, team continues to try but continues to make bad plays. Team begins falling apart and makes fatal Bonehead play. Last ditch effort falls woefully short. Team loses.

That is pretty much it (of course it would be written in far more elegant prose).  And that pretty much sums up what happened last Sunday against the Buccaneers. Again, people, I did not root for a Charger loss. I cannot do it. But, when the game ended, I have to tell you that I was not upset. Embarrassed, yes. A little down in the dumps, sure. But not upset. Like Churchill in the war room, followers, we must concede the battle to win the war. We are now 4-5 and I have never heard Charger nation call for Norv’s head so clearly and widely. There is finality to it now; it seems that everyone knows that each loss puts us closer to a new head coach. Will this be the answer?  In the short term, I doubt it, we have many problems. And, quite frankly, replacing the coach alone will not help me rest easier. AJ must go too. More on that in a moment, let’s (briefly) talk about the game.

The Chargers started nicely with a 80 yard TD pass to new pick up Denario Alexander. Please tell me how a guy off the street, with little or no practice, can become our best receiver in a matter of days. When we just spent big money on Robert Meacham (4 year contract), Eddie Royal (3 years), and Malcom Floyd (3 years)?  It is amazing to me. But there it is, and we were up 7. Following a long and sustained Tampa Bay drive featuring their nifty running back Doug Martin and old friend Vincent Jackson, the score was tied. But we kept hurling the ball downfield, with Rivers finding Gates, Floyd, and Alexander on more nice passes. Tampa Bay has the worst passing defense in the League, and one of the best rushing defenses. We kept trying with Ryan Mathews, but it was tough sledding for him. The passing game was almost too easy, with the Bolts nailing a bunch of third down conversions and Philip hitting Gates on a nice TD.

The boys were playing well, and the defense was tightened up, when, there it came....the first bonehead play. Special teams have been a bright spot this year for the Bolts, but when Corey Lynch made a grievous error and left his man to hit a guy far on the outside, he opened up about the easiest punt block in the last decade. Scifres got mugged, and it was a Tampa Bay TD. Just like that. But, the Bolts went back to hurling the ball, and put together a fantastic drive to end the half. A late TD to Floyd and we had the lead going into the half. Rivers was on fire. Bonehead Play #1 did not kill us.

But Bonehead Play #2 did. After a long Tampa Drive put them up 24-21, we were driving again and were around their 20-25 yard line. On third down, Rivers rolled right (never a good thing) and was trotting toward the sideline, when he threw probably the worst pass I have ever seen. I know, I know. Hyperbole. But, really, I defy you to show me a worse pass attempt. He was two feet from the sideline, he could have stepped over, thrown the ball away, or fell down. Any of those would have led to about a 38-40 yard field goal attempt to tie what was a close game. Instead, he dinked one right into the stomach of the surprised rookie corner who started running the other way. It looked like a play in the back yard where you throw one to your kid on accident to make them feel good about their “interception”.  Nobody really knew what to say about it. The commentators...or the ESPN analysts hours later. When Philip said, “I just released it earlier than I wanted too”...he lost me. That is one where the answer to the question is, “I have no idea what I did but I cost my team the game”.  There is no other answer.

When Philip threw another interception late in the game (when the Chargers still had a chance mind you) one could only conclude that the team had once again rolled over and died. This now makes three losses where the Chargers had a lead in the second half. No finish in these guys. And, the sad thing is, they controlled super rookie Doug Martin, and they controlled Vincent Jackson. Neither of those guys did much. But when you give the other team  Pick 6, a blocked punt for a TD, and another pick to set up a field goal...you are spotting them a 17-0 lead. Not gonna win that way. Philip provided highlight reel stuff early, but two of the worst throws ever in the second half. He has the worst QB rating in the 4^th quarter of any QB in the League. That is why we are losing. Our best player is just not playing well.

So, what now? Well, on to Denver...where the red hot Mannings lie in wait. Speaking purely mathematically, a win here by Denver pretty much ends the “race” in the AFC West. That would give Denver a three game lead on us and a sweep in hand for tiebreaker purposes. But, this really does not matter...because we have now lost to the Browns and the Buccaneers and we are circling the drain.

So, on to AJ. Apparently AJ stood outside the tunnel as the Chargers filed off the field after the game. He was looking into the eyes of all the players as they left, not saying anything. What is this about? Some strange “test” of loyalty? Is he judging them....seeing who is sad and who is not sad enough? Is he checking on their demeanor? Is he making sure they have not taken their shirts off? What the hell? This is yet another reason why this silent, brooding, jerk just has to go. The problem is that what will be needed at the end of the year is a bloodletting. The play we have seen from guys like Gaither (who did not play and has missed 5 of 9 games), Meacham, and many others cannot be tolerated, yet my fear is that AJ’s ego will not allow him to cut a guy he just signed to a 4 year contract. That is why both a new coach AND a new Manager are needed. Because we need someone with the guts to change the system...and the culture. It won’t happen with just a coach.

As you remember, my theme for this season of the ANALYSIS was hope and positivity. Uh.......that is not easy......so I will hope for better days in the future. Days with a new attitude, days where the team is fun to watch again, days where the team might lack talent, but plays with heart. We are a broken television, followers, and when was the last time you took a TV in for repairs. Gotta buy a new one.

BOLT ANALYSIS: A TREE IN THE WOODS

Do you remember last Thursday night? What happened? You had dinner...you spent time watching your Tivo’d shows? You hung out with the kids? Did you read a book?

Last Thursday night, a tree fell in the woods somewhere near San Diego.  Nobody heard it...but it actually happened. The Chargers won a game against a moribund group called the Chiefs. It counts in the standings, but it does not count for much in any other way. However, because the ANALYSIS never sleeps, the ANALYSIS was aware of this victory and, as last week’s post foretold, there are mixed feelings.

This version of the ANALYSIS should have been sent on Friday. However, the tardy release is the result of three key factors:

1) The Breeders’ Cup happened here in Sunny Arcadia this past Friday and Saturday. This requires much attention and concentration. Gotta have priorities.

2) The Chiefs don’t count. Beating the Chiefs at home is nothing to be thrilled about.

3) We are all tired, followers, tired of a team that whipsaws our emotions and creates such frustration.

So, that is why this is late. And really...what is there to say? The Chargers played well last week. Rivers was 18-20 and threw a couple of touchdowns. Our defense opened up on the Chiefs with a couple of runbacks to blow the game open. We moved the ball, we stopped the opponent. It was an easy win. Still, even with a nice win...come the questions. How is it that at the end of the half, after a half of domination, does Rivers throw an interception in the endzone from the 1 yard line?. This lack of discipline and decision-making is beyond worrisome. The fact that the guy was 18 for 19 the rest of his passes gets muddied by that choice. Did it matter...no, not in this game. But it is emblematic of what has happened to us in recent years.  Also, how about the fact that both of our utterly ineffective “big name” free agent acquisitions:  receivers Robert Meacham and Eddie Royal, are out with injuries. Did you notice? Did you notice that kickoff returner Richard Goodman is also out? That is why Eric Weddle is returning punts (badly) and that is why we combed through the waiver wire to pick up Denario Alexander and Seyi Ajirotutu..both who made plays in the game. Oh and yeah, speaking of trees falling in the woods, were you even aware that Nate Kaeding was cut and released unceremoniously. Our “kicker forever” cast into the wilderness.

Things are weird in Charger-land folks. The starry-eyed optimists among us (do you exist?) will say we are 4-4 and right in the thick of things in the mediocre AFC. From a math standpoint, this is correct. But, our wins have come at the expense of the Raiders, Chiefs (twice), and the Titans. These three teams are, uh, not good. This coming Sunday we travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Bucs and Vincent Jackson. More worrisome than Jackson, however, is their rookie running back Doug Martin who is putting up unbelievable numbers. The fact that he is my fantasy team standout will make rooting very interesting in that game. Is Tampa Bay a good team? I don’t know. They seem to be hot and cold, trying to figure themselves out. The fact is, though, that they have won two in a row and are playing at home. They will be a test for our underachievers.

Look, followers, I have no insights today. I think last week’s win was a vision of what we don’t want to have happen. We don’t want to beat up on bad teams, lose to good ones, and finish 8-8. Because if we do that, Norv and AJ will stay. The same pattern will stay, and the same formula will be trotted out there week after week. We spoke of a scorched-earth policy last week. Beating the Chiefs easily is not scorched-earth. However, unlike the current political wranglings, we must stay on point and we must not move away from our long term goal. Which is:  Change you can Believe In.

That being said, the ANALYSIS cannot actively root for its team to lose. It is just not in me. Only here, in the sober, austere pages of the ANALYSIS, can the truth burn. If we beat the Bucs next week, we will need to begin caring again folks. And, until all hope is gone, I will continue to care.