BOLT ANALYSIS - DRAFT RECAP

So, the 2010 NFL Draft is in the books. Three days of riveting television that I’m sure you all have been watching over and over on Tivo. I love the fact that the NFL Network REPLAYS the Draft in its entirety several times. Just in case you missed a commercial I guess.

My pre-draft ANALYSIS said there would be fireworks. And there were…although perhaps not of the magnitude I expected. The Chargers did pull off three trades…each time to move up in a Draft round and grab the guy they obviously wanted. This is clearly AJ’s philosophy…do what you can to get the guy you want rather than draft for quantity and hope a certain number of guys work out (a la Evil Bill). Both methods have their supporters of course…certainly all the draftniks on TV like the Evil Bill approach. Why would they not? If you love the draft…you have to love more draft picks, right?

Let’s look at who the Chargers got:

1^st Round – RYAN MATHEWS.

The Chargers trade up 16 spots to #12 to grab the second running back taken in the draft. Out of Fresno State, the kid had glowing reviews from evaluators, in terms of strength, size, character, work ethic, all that good stuff. I watched him in a Bowl game last year…he got the ball every play it seemed and just pounded guys even though the whole stadium knew where the ball was going. Clearly, the team loves him and believes he is a more than adequate replacement for LT. They gave up a lot to get him, including their coveted 2^nd round pick and LB Tim Dobbins. He is a California kid, is ecstatic to be a Charger, and it sure will be nice to watch someone who is thrilled to play for this team instead of a sullen and pouting LT.

3^rd Round – DONALD BUTLER

The Chargers trade up another 12 spots or so to grab this linebacker out of Washington. I watched him in the USC-Washington game. He is pretty much a Stephen Cooper clone, an inside linebacker who plays 100% all the time, flies around to the ball. He is versatile and can blow up the running play as well as drop back into coverage. With the loss of Tim Dobbins and the fact that our other three inside linebackers do not have contracts past next year, this pick makes a lot of sense. Plus, by all accounts a great leader and character kid who played on a bad team and always gave it up on the field.

4^th Round – DARRELL STUCKEY

A safety out of Kansas. A fast, physical safety who plays very well in a zone defense. He will have every opportunity to make the team as a starter this year. He also was a team leader and did charity work (seriously…do you see a pattern here? I think the Chargers are so damn sick of dudes hanging at strip clubs…they are signing a bunch of altar boys). I was kind of hoping for a safety a bit earlier but after they gave up their 2^nd round pick they lost the chance. This guy seems like a good fit.

5^th Round – CAM THOMAS

A surprise this guy was around in the 5^th round. Traded up another 10 spots or so to grab him. A 330 pound monster from North Carolina who will be slotted in as Nose Tackle. A lot of people thought this guy might go in the 2^nd or 3^rd round but the Chargers took a gamble he would be around. Comes into a good situation as he will be in a rotation with two other Nose Tackles and can ease into it. This guy will do the dirty work like Jamal Williams did for all those years. Nice pick.

5^th Round – JONATHAN CROMPTON

Here is your new third round quarterback. Let’s hope he never sees the field. If this guy plays in the next 4 years, it will be because Phillip cannot. A good pick as you need 3 QBs on your roster and this guy can throw. Tennessee was not a good team last year but, much like Charlie Whitehurst before him, he played against good competition and gets to learn behind Rivers and Volek.

7^th Round – DEDRICK EPPS

A big tight end/blocker out of Miami. Another position I was hoping they would address earlier in the Draft or through a trade. This is an underappreciated position. Essentially a lead blocker/H-back type guy who can also catch. These guys can be a huge asset to the team, acting like a fullback on some plays, an offensive lineman on others, and a pass catcher on third down. This guy had some injury problems so hope he can make the team.

All in all, a very formful draft. My predraft ANALYSIS identified Ryan Mathews and Cam Thomas by name and also mentioned that a 3^rd string QB and Tight End would be drafted. So…AJ went to the obvious needs.

The underlying story is no Offensive linemen were drafted. They must believe that they have the blockers to make it work. I am worried about this. I am also a bit worried about the situation at corner. There is a lot of pressure on Antoine Cason and our new guys Vasher and Strickland. But…you cannot rely on the Draft for everything. If you can get 3 or 4 players in a draft that actually play and contribute, you are winning the battle. I think we did that over the weekend. I look forward to watching these guys develop and fill out the roster.

You should also be aware that the Chargers signed 20 free agents after the draft. 20! This is where the Bolts have done some damage…getting guys the days after the Draft who were not picked. Antonio Gates, Dombrowski, Jyles Tucker, Kassim Osgood. They have had some luck with these sorts. Who knows if any will make the team but they will be given a shot.

We will check back in after training camp in the summer.

Another story I must comment on was the ridiculous stuff that LT has been spouting off. If you have not seen it, here is what LT says about his last few years with the Chargers.

“The things that happened in San Diego, everything was taken away from me,” Tomlinson said. “There wasn’t an emphasis on running the football anymore, my best fullback was gone, the linemen were pass blocking and it was a passing quarterback and a passing coach. So, the situation’s kind of misleading when you look on film.”

Wow, so call out everyone except yourself. Nice work LT. How about just once…one time…show an ounce of leadership?  Especially in a playoff game. Always someone else’s fault with this guy. Since then, he has tried to back off these comments but I read that his offensive line is pretty peeved about this. All they can do is open some holes for new guy Mathews and have folks cheering for him as soon as possible. Beat the Jets!

See some of ya’ll in Vegas. The rest of you…stay tuned. 

BOLT ANALYSIS: THE SCHEDULE AND THE DRAFT

It’s that time of year again in Sports….hockey playoffs, basketball playoffs, baseball has begun, the Kentucky Derby looms…and….the granddaddy of them all….the RELEASE OF THE 2010-2011 NFL SCHEDULE!

As a shameless precursor to the greatest non-sporting event in sports…the NFL Draft….the League has released its schedule. Countless football freaks scurry into a secluded place and begin to piece together their season predictions. Matching up home games…thinking about road trips…analyzing matchups. You know I am not talking about me, right?

Well, today’s edition of the ANALYSIS focuses on this massive event, as well as the upcoming three-day NFL Draft Spectacular.

In my last post, we went through the off-season activity engaged in by the Chargers. LT and Cromartie are Jets, Jamal is a Bronco, and several other key guys have changed teams. The only significant activity since that post (and refer to it if you need a complete player list) is the trade of third string QB Charlie Whitehurst and the signing of Defensive Backs Donald Strickland and Nathan Vasher. The Whitehurst deal is great…a trade of second round picks this year (we move up 20 spots in the second round) and a third round pick next year. Seattle really wanted this guy…never thrown a NFL pass in a regular season game…and we get a couple of nice picks. Cool. The pick-ups of Strickland and Vasher are good too. Veteran corners who have played at a high level in the past. Should bring some much needed leadership and experience to our secondary.

But…as I outlined before….despite all of the high profile deletions from the team, I cannot help but think there has not been any high profile addition. The apparent retention of V Jackson, Merriman, Sproles, McNeil, and Floyd is a good thing…and maybe that is high profile, but I just think that something else is coming. Some trade in the next couple days, or at the Draft itself, that brings a big name to the Chargers. Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that I think we need a big name necessarily, but I just think AJ has something up his sleeve. We have stockpiled a few extra high round draft picks next year…I can see a trade of one or more of these picks for a running back. I can also see Merriman or Sproles being traded for the right price. Stay tuned…there will be some fireworks…I feel it.

Now, on to the schedule. If you have not seen it, there are a number of interesting games. Opening on the road at Kansas City on Monday night football, which is cool, and no fewer than FIVE prime time matchups: Two Monday night games, two Sunday night games, and one Thursday night game the night after Christmas. Someone thinks the Chargers are exciting to watch I guess. So…that is cool.

I have been caught in the trap of looking at the schedule before…thinking about whether we have a “soft” or difficult schedule. This analysis is wasted…because in the modern day NFL teams change annually. Free agency and contracts have made the NFL a merry-go-round of players. So, the teams that were bad last year can improve dramatically. In 2008, I thought we had an easy schedule playing a mediocre NFC South. As it turned out, New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina all beat us up. So…I am done with that type of previewing. But, I will focus on some facts of the schedule and let you make up your own minds.

·        Opponents:  Raiders twice, Chiefs twice, Broncos twice. All three teams appear to be still in rebuild mode. Playing the NFC West this year: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, and St. Louis. The weakest division in football last year. Hard to argue that these 10 games are not fortuitous for us..again, sticking to facts here. Despite my admonishment of these types of predictions in the above text, any half-baked analyst will tell you that the AFC and NFC West were the two weakest divisions in football last year.

·        We also play decade-long nemeses Indianapolis and New England, last year’s surprise Cincinnati, and a solid trio of AFC South teams in Jacksonville, Houston, and Tennessee.

·        Four of the first six games are on the road and the last two games of the season are on the road. This is tough…no time for another patented slow start.

·        A stretch late in the season where we have 4 of 5 at home including a bye in the sixth week. A nice stretch where we can settle in and hopefully do some damage at home.

·        Last two games on the road in cold-weather places (Cincy and Denver). Don’t like this at all. Although we have played well late in the season the past couple of years, these are not easy games.

So…there it is. The 2010-2011 schedule. Another fun year ahead. A fair schedule….that is all I will say. Don’t think it is “easy” at all, even though statistically it is the 4^th easiest in the League in terms of opponents’ winning percentages from last year.  

Now, on to the DRAFT.  With the departure of LT and Jamal Williams, most of the prognosticators are saying the Chargers will be drafting a Running Back and a Nose Tackle with their first two picks. While this is entirely possible, I am not banking on AJ going with the formula.

With Cromartie gone and our pass coverage and pass rushing our biggest weakness…I would not be surprised to see a safety or cornerback taken first or second. Even with the two new veteran corners we brought in, we have never had a real replacement for Rodney Harrison at Safety and I’m not sure the team believes that Antoine Cason is the end all be all at Corner. I have also heard rumors that the plan is ultimately to move Quentin Jammer to safety…where he would be awesome by the way….but right now he is our team’s best corner so that is not happening this year. So…look at Safety or Corner too in addition to Running Back and Nose Tackle.

Other spots we need to fill:

·        3^rd string Quarterback --  need to replace Whitehurst

·        Tight end/blocker – need to replace Manumaleuna and Norv Turner loves this position

·        Pass Rusher – Outside Linebacker. Even though they took Larry English in the first round last year, don’t be surprised if they draft another similar player. There seems to be no chance that Merriman will be around next year and our defense is predicated on outside linebackers getting to the QB.

·        Right Tackle – We need more depth at the tackle position.

So, with all the crazy “Mock Drafts” and similar picks going on out there, who the heck knows which players the Chargers are shooting for? Let’s just hope they add some role players who can make an impact. Some names I have heard from my sources:

Running Back: Jahvid Best (Cal), Toby Gearhart (Stanford), Ryan Matthews (Fresno State)

Nose Tackle: Terrence Cody (Alabama), Linval Joseph (E Carolina), Cam Thomas (North Carolina)

Safety/Corner: Chris Cook (Virginia), Kyle Wilson (Boise State), Devin McCourty (Rutgers)

Enjoy the Draft….and watch for some fireworks!