I will begin this installation of
the ANALYSIS with a well-known quote: “I
made it through the wilderness. Somehow I made it through. Didn’t know how lost
I was, until I found you”. Of course, you realize I am talking about the return
of the NFL...and the vast sports wasteland that we all have slogged through
since last season. This year was better than most: we had the Olympics (despite the horrible
coverage), and we had the LA Kings Stanley Cup victory...but it still felt a
lot like one of those movies where the protagonist is walking through a
blasted, post-apocalyptic landscape searching for companionship. Well,
followers, last week the NFL returned, along with normalcy and reason, to the
Sporting World. And, followers, this time of year is ripe with optimism.
Right now, all 32 teams,
including our Boyz, have a chance. All
32 teams are optimistic, they are feeling good, and they think this may be the
year. Papers and blogs are filled with quotes about how coaches are saying, “I
like what I’m seeing on the field”...”we have a whole new intensity this
year”....”I’ve never seen a better locker room”....”the guys just have that
fire!”. And on and on. I know all of you are optimistic right now, and why not?
This is the fun part...the anticipation. It is especially true of the
Bolts....given that they have a drastically new team with a lot of new faces.
Why not have a bunch of hope right now. Anything can happen...this point was
documented in the last blog installment...and I believe it.
But, despite this optimism, I
know that you all turn to the ANALYSIS for something far more precious and very
rare: realism. You turn to the ANALYSIS
for a real view of what is on the horizon, and this is what will be delivered.
Last weekend, the Bolts opened their preseason with a win over the Packers.
There were good things, there were bad things, and there were ugly things with
that game. The best thing about it is that it is over. The best thing about
tomorrow’s preseason game against Dallas is that it is not televised. You see,
I am not a big fan of the preseason. Sure, it is a way to evaluate talent and
game-time situations cannot be mimicked in practice, but it is also simply a
way for the NFL to make more money and for players to get hurt. I am a much
bigger fan of non-televised scrimmages between teams. This is a way for players
to be evaluated and get experience without the added pressure of the real game.
If this means the first two or three real games are a bit sloppier as players
get ready...fine with me. That being said, we must evaluate what we saw in that
game...and what we are hearing about practice and training camp. I think a
realistic view can be completed in five basic topics. Please read on.
1. It is all about Rivers --- It has been for a while but it
is clearly and completely on his shoulders now. He is a very good QB, maybe a
great one, and he has done wonders with a lot of injuries and poor play around
him. But, let’s face it, he had a bad year last year. He threw 20 picks, he
made bad plays in the red zone, he cost us games (read: dropped snap). It is
his team. We live and die with him, and this makes some of the other topics
below that much more important. Ron
Jaworski (whom I respect quite a bit) did an offseason ranking of the top 30
quarterbacks in the League. It was exhaustive...looking at every stat and
intangible you can imagine. He had Philip ranked #7 behind Rodgers, Brees,
Brady, Manning, Manning, Roethlisberger. I think that is fair. He can be
better, and that is a good thing. He does not have Vincent Jackson, but he does
have a healthy Gates, Floyd, Vincent Brown, and new shooters Meacham and Royal
to throw to. We shall see.
2. Can we ever believe in Ryan Mathews? --- Ryan got hurt on
his first preseason play. One run, five yards, one broken clavicle. Other than
Rivers, there is perhaps only one other player (more on him later) as important
to Charger success. By all accounts, he worked his butt off in the offseason
and he is trying very hard to be a top back. He has all the tools, but he is
injury prone, is not very smart, and has the worst luck on the team. I want to
believe in Ryan. I really do. But this is his third year on the team, and he
has not had any semblance of consistency. He has been hurt a lot, and he is
forcing so hard I just don’t know if it will ever come for him. Running backs
have a short life span anyway...unless he can get through this injury and get
meaningful playing time early in the season, we could be in for another
frustrating season. Our backup running backs are fairly deep...but there are a
lot of question marks. We need Ryan bad.
3. What about Third Downs? --- One stat that the Chargers
should have printed on the wall of the locker room is that they are the worst
team in the League (by far) in allowing opponents to make third downs against
them. This is largely due to a terrible pass rush, injuries to outside
linebackers, vanilla defensive schemes, and a lack of playmakers. If this
statistic is not dealt with, we will not make the playoffs again. Period. AJ
Smith went all out to remedy this in the offseason...drafting pass rushers with
the first two picks of the draft (Melvin Ingram and Kendall Reyes), re-signing
their best rusher from a year ago (Antwan Barnes), and signing a good free agency
linebacker/edge sealer (Jarrett Johnson). This, and hoping that both Larry
English and Shawn Phillips return strong from injuries should make this a big
upgrade. In the Packer game, I was thrilled with what I saw from Ingram and, to
a lesser extent, Reyes. Ingram looked fast, strong, mobile, and mean....traits
we have not had since Merriman. He nailed Aaron Rodgers a couple of times,
caused an interception, and wreaked some havoc. Watch this guy...it could be
fun.
4. Jared Gaither’s Back --- Lost in all the media noise out
there is the fact that our starting left tackle, Jared Gaither, has
participated in one (that’s right...one) practice. He has had “back spasms”
since the first day of camp and has been invisible. This is very worrisome. Our
starting tackle, Marcus McNeil, was cut...and has since retired. Sad, as he was
a class act. Gaither is now signed to the most important position we have
protecting Philip Rivers. The fact that he has not played at all and that the
team has been quiet about it should concern you. We are starting an undrafted
rookie out of UCLA at left tackle in his absence. If Jared is not healthy and
playing in Game 1...look out. We will likely be combing through the waiver wire
looking for tackles.
5. What about Third Downs? Part Two --- The other part of
third downs is the play of our secondary. Both Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason
are in the last year of their contracts. Cason is in a make or break situation.
He has shown flashes of being a very good corner...and flashes of being a
special teamer and back up at best. He is integral to our success, but if the
Chargers were sure on him...they would have already signed an extension. This
is his final test year. Jammer is coming off a poor year that supposedly was
caused by his pending divorce and personal issues. I’ve always respected
Quentin...he plays hard and is solid, if not spectacular. He needs to rebound
though, or he is gone next year as well. Young slot corner Marcus Gilchrist and
backup corner Shareece Wright have promise and will get plenty of playing time.
I still think we are thin however, and may need to grab a veteran backup here.
So, there you have it. The Five
Big Topics. Don’t get me wrong, this is not a negative post. I am realistically
optimistic. I’m looking forward to a fun season...a lot of the expectations are
gone for me. The crushing weight and pressure of the moniker: “most talented team in football” is LONG
gone. This is just another team now...one of the 32 out there, trying to make
the playoffs. I think we can. But, the expectations are gone. I’m just going to
enjoy it, and, like the song says, hope the Bolts make me feel shiny and new.
