BOLT ANALYSIS: THE DRAFT...A BEGINNING AND THE END

Hey all. Welcome to the 2013 Draft Review Spectacular. This episode of the ANALYSIS will also be the last…at least for now. I will not lean towards the dramatic…I will not tug on your heartstrings….I will not go overly overboard to try to make this last session between us emotional and memorable. Like all good bloggers out there…it will just be the facts, man.

So, the DRAFT happened last week. I was on a beach in Hawaii but you know the ANALYSIS was there…watching, and analyzing. I will start with a summary. As has been wildly over-reported, this was the first Draft for our young ‘uns…Telesco and McCoy. However, they have both been a part of successful drafts for other teams in the past. It is really not rocket science, right? You look at your team needs, you see if you can get some value, you rate players all over the country, and then you choose players. What never seems to get reported, however, is that you do one more thing: You hope. You hope your hunches are right, you hope the player stays healthy, and you hope he fits on the squad.

So what happened last week? Well, let’s start with Draft Needs. Despite what all the pundits and dummies will tell you, the ANALYSIS knew that the Chargers needed the following: Offensive linemen, cornerbacks, linebackers, a safety, and a nose tackle. The consensus for months was that the Chargers would take a lineman with their first pick. There were three “elite” tackles available and two “elite” guards available. You had to figure that with the Chargers picking at 11…one of these 5 players would be available. You really could not figure that 5 of the first 10 picks would be an offensive lineman…however…..

That is just what happened. With left tackle being the key need for the Chargers…to replace the ridiculous Jared Gaither…those within the inner sanctum must have just about soiled themselves to see 3 of the first 4 picks going with left tackles.  The soling must have continued to see Guards go at picks 7 and 10. Are you kidding? Nobody used to take guards until the 4^th round…now they are going in the top 10. Either the game has changed or this draft just happened to be really really weird. So, the Bolts came up at 11. Here were their options…they could take the number 1 linebacker available, the number 2 cornerback available, the number 1 safety, the number 1 nose tackle, OR they could take the number 4 tackle and number 6 offensive linemen overall. What did the young ‘uns do? They took the number 4 tackle. DJ Fluker became the number 1 pick of the boyz. A 340-pound monster who won 2 national championships with Alabama. This was not the popular pick. Pundits love to use the term “elite”. DJ Fluker is not elite. First of all, he is a RIGHT tackle. All of the world knows that left tackles are elite…right tackles are just, uh, needed. But, the Chargers maintain he was the best available. The pundits say he was worth between pick 14-20. The Bolt Nation in the blogosphere hated the pick  initially..thinking it un-sexy.

What does the ANALYSIS say?:  The Draft in my opinion is about finding starters. How many guys get drafted high and never start? The answer is many. This pick is a starter. Yes, he is a right tackle. No, he is not sexy. No, he is not the highest rated guy. But he is not a risk. This guy will start from day 1 in the NFL for the Chargers. He will replace Jeromey Clary (who may move to guard) and he will be a starter. Given the Chargers last 5 years of picks, this is a good deal.

Which brings us to Round 2 and the feel-good story of the Draft. The Boyz pulled a major move and got the Sports world talking by moving up 7 picks to trade with the Cardinals and pick Manti Te’o. Yes, the man who got Catfished. The guy who was in headlines forever by being duped and lying about it. The guy who had his draft stock fall dramatically because of a horrible game he played in the national championship and because of his “character” issues during the hoax. What was overlooked by other teams perhaps is the following: prior to the national championship game and hoax, Manti was the most decorated defensive player coming out of college in years. Maybe ever. He won awards for everything. He was listed as a top 5 pick in everyone’s draft board. Was much of this the relentless campaigning of the Mother Church (aka Notre Dame)? Of course. Was he as good as all this hype? No. But lets look more closely. He was one of the several highest rated players out of high school in the Country. He played 4 years at a HIGH level for the Mother Church. He was singled out by the ND coach as the “best player and best man” he had ever coached. His teammates loved him. He was a guy most teams were drooling over. Until that Alabama game. He was exposed that night. He was shown up by the best team in the country. The pressure got to him, and he looked overmatched. He had a bad game. The pressure following the hoax was massive…and he had a bad combine. However, even with all this press, every draft pundit still had him in the first round. It did not change the fact that he was the “best player available” for a number of picks before the Bolts took him. The initial reaction was shock and awe..but:

What does the ANALYSIS think?: I like it. The kid will work hard. The kid has something to prove. He will take relentless crap from the fans, from his teammates, and from his rivals. But, he will overcome it. What did I say about the draft finding starters? If he does not start in Game 1 I will be shocked. He will be next to Donald Butler and I think that will be a good thing. It was kind of fitting that I was about 1 mile from where he grew up (In Laie on Oahu) when the pick was made. I’m rooting for him.

In round 3, the BOYZ got a guy who was also a former consensus number 1 pick. Keenan Allen out of Cal. He busted up his knee about ¾ through the season and that was what prevented him from going in the first half of the first round. There were NO top receivers out there. He would have been a top 15-20 pick. Instead, we get him 76^th. Pretty good, man. He is big, strong, and I watched him tear up the Pac 12 for two years before his injury. Nice job. He comes back from his injury (a risk to be sure) and he is a big boost to our anemic receiving corps.

We gave away our 4^th round pick to get Te’o. In the 5^th round, we grabbed Steve Williams, a small but very athletic cornerback from Cal. This guy is a great athlete, just short. I am guessing he competes for our slot corner position, where he will match up with third receivers and running  backs out of the backfield. A guy who has no character issues, was a team leader, and was very impressive in his skill set. There are a million players like this, but he has a chance to play quite a bit in our broken secondary.

Our 6^th round pick was another Williams..Tourek Williams. An outside lineback and pass rusher out of Florida International. Another guy who has the ubiquitous “high motor” and will be a big body who can try to rush the QB. You can never have too many of these guys, especially when we have gotten rid of Shawn Phillips, Antwan Barnes, and others. He will add some depth..and maybe push our weak former first round pick, Larry English.

Finally, we took Brad Sorenson, a QB out of Southern Utah in the 7^th round. Kind of weird, considering there were some QBs from big schools available. But, this is simply a guy to push to be a backup one of these days. Its depth and building, nothing more.

So that’s it. After some separation, the Chargers are getting positive reviews from the pundits. But screw them, what does the ANALYSIS think? The ANALYSIS does not give draft grades. The ANALYSIS views a draft based on fit and based on starters. I really believe we drafted two starters in Fluker and Te’o. I believe we drafted two players who will see the field plenty in Allen and S. Williams, one player who adds depth and competition in T. Williams, and one guy who makes our starting quarterback just a little less comfortable in Sorenson. I like it. I’m not going to get too excited because we need a lot of help. But if we are looking at this as a long term plan…and we need to…this is a good group.

There you have it, gentle readers. That is the review you needed and expected. Hope Springs Eternal…it always does. Lets look forward to the next season with no expectations. No predictions. Lets just have some hope. Hope that we put a team on the field that is fun to watch, that plays hard, and that competes. That is all we can ask for. And, followers, I will miss you all. The ANALYSIS has enjoyed its run. It has enjoyed the Monday breakdowns. For now, and as always, Go Bolts! 

BOLT ANALYSIS: THE STATE OF THINGS AND THE END OF AN ERA

Hello All! It has been quite a long time since the ANALYSIS checked in with ya’ll. We have all been riveted by the tragic events in Boston and Texas so allow a diversion to some brainless sports news. We are now on the cusp of the beginning of the NFL season. I know...you are looking around the Sports World..you see the NHL Season coming to an end, the NBA playoff matchups set, baseball has started, the Kruckeberg family is still basking in the afterglow of yet another cash-in on Final Four bracketology...the Kentucky Derby looms. Who cares about football? Well, the ANALYSIS does. The NFL makes the release of their schedule a massive event. The release of the schedule to a breathless sports nation last night brought few surprises, but at least it got the football juices flowing again. It makes what you are about to read more important, and more timely.

Before we get to the schedule however, we must discuss what has occurred since the last posting. In the last installment, I explained the situation with our new coach and GM. McCoy and Telesco, two 40-somethings who have taken over for the fossilized Norv Turner and the anti-Christ (like) figure of AJ Smith. I penned my hopes for a change in attitude that these new youthful leaders could impart. I wondered about some of the key decisions that would be made in the coming offseason and free agency period.  Well.....followers.....it has been very, very interesting. This offseason and free agency period (to date) can only be described as: Scorched Earth. The new kids on the block have taken a sledgehammer to this team. If any of us were clinging to same last, sad, vestige of hope that our current lineup was NFL-suitable, you may now release hope.  At the conclusion of the season, the ANALYSIS pondered the future of many Charger starters and key players, and whether they would remain with the team. Under Norv and AJ, we had always had a penchant to hold on to existing players (even against their will-and with some painful exceptions) and not spend a bunch of money on outside free agents. This ended last season with AJ’s sad and desperate attempt to sign Jared Gaither (bust), Robert Meacham (bust), Eddie Royal (bust), and Jarret Johnson (OK player). The ANALYSIS opined that the Bolts would try and retain a couple of their free agents and continue to try and build around them. The three players that held the most interest were Antoine Cason, Louis Vasquez, and Vaughn Martin. Decisions about those players would probably give a strong indication which way we were going as a team. Well...take a look at what has happened since McCoy and Telesco took over.

The Chargers have released the following starters: Atari Bigby, Randy McMichael, Takeo Spikes, Antonio Garay, and Jared Gaither.  Of these released players, only Garay (Jets) has signed with another team.

The Chargers also allowed the following players to be signed elsewhere without any sort of offer or fight:   Louis Vasquez (Broncos-4 years), Antoine Cason (Cardinals-1 years), Antwan Barnes (Jets-- 3 years), Aubrayo Franklin (Colts), and Vaughn Martin (Dolphins).

Of this group, only Vasquez received what can be considered a big contract (from our Rivals the Broncos no less). The rest of these guys are pickups for depth and maybe spot starters.

Perhaps most telling however, is the list of players who are former Chargers that now have no contract. The Chargers have shown no interest in these guys, NOR HAS ANY OTHER TEAM TO DATE:

Tyronne Green, Quentin Jammer, Shaun Phillips, Brandyn Dombrowski, Dante Rosario, Jackie Battle, and Corey Lynch. 

These guys may come back...or get signed by another team later in the process, but the point is that nobody wanted them now.  The only player offered a deal by the Chargers was Denario Alexander, last year’s surprise receiving star. We will know in the next few days whether he sticks around.

So, like I said...Scorched Earth! VERY telling is the fact that these players have not been picked up. It tells you....they were not very good, were getting paid too much, and are not the guys you build around. You might say, OK..well we dropped all of the Norv/AJ players, that must mean we are spending lots of money on Free Agents that McCoy and Telesco like?  Uh, well, check out this murderers row of players we have signed:

Richard Goodman (WR), Doug Rinehart (OG), Rich Ohrnberger (OG), Jarius Wynn (DE), Cornelius Brown (DE), Deon Butler (WR),  King Dunlap (OT),  Danny Woodhead (RB), Dan DePalma (WR), Dallas Walker (TE),  Mike Windt (LS), Nick Novak (K), Derek Cox (CB), John Phillips (TE).

Heard of any of ‘em?  Yeah, not really. Danny Woodhead did very well with the Patriots...and Derek Cox is a true starter at cornerback (and probably a pound for pound clone of Cason) but other than that this is a group of backups and fill ins. At best.

So, where does this leave the team? The ANALYSIS has NO...CLUE. No clue folks. They are certainly no better than they were last year, and perhaps not too much worse? Don’t know. What is the Plan? What is Telesco doing? I would say this is a true attempt to begin to build again through the Draft. It is a long range plan to get rid of all of AJ and Norv’s dead weight...to get rid of dead money paid to athletes who are now released, and to slowly build the team back through smart draft picks. That is the only, and I mean only, explanation. Again, Scorched Earth policy.

Which brings me to next week’s Draft. The NFLs three day love affair with itself. Usually, the ANALYSIS provides incisive, daring, and, yes, somewhat amazing prognostics on the Draft. I would stack up the ANALYSIS’ track record against any pundit in identifying positions and even players that the Chargers would go after. This year...not gonna happen. The Chargers really have zero areas that do not need work. Think of the offensive line....two starters remain and they don’t like one of them (Clary). Think of the secondary...only Weddle remains from last year as a starter. Think of the linebacking corps...Donald Butler a bright spot but we are still waiting for Larry English and Melvin Ingram and Jonas Mouton to make a dent. Defensive line OK but can Cam Thomas cut it as a starting nose tackle. What about the offense...does anyone believe that Rivers can still excel in this mobile and increasingly fast League? Does anyone believe Ryan Mathews is the answer at RB? Does anyone think Gates has years left?  I have no answers to these questions followers. I simply must say that the Draft will be as much as a surprise to the ANALYSIS as it will be to you.

So..now to the schedule. Well...again, the ANALYSIS used to spend time running down the list of teams on the docket...thinking about matchups...and guessing (I mean selecting) wins and losses. I would often ask for your best estimate of the team’s finishing record. Again...not gonna happen. Our last three seasons have gone 8-8, 9-7, 7-9. We lose to horrible teams...we have beaten great teams. With so few of our old players remaining...I aint guessin’. I do know that we open at home on Monday Night Football against the Texans and I do know we play another Monday Night game against Indy (also at home). Other than that folks, you wont see the Chargers on primetime. I would say we must look at this as a year of low expectations with the hope (always the hope) that we will win some games.

Which brings me to my final point. I will be back with a post-Draft ANALYSIS that will set the stage for the 2013 season. But, with that, I must announce that my Post-Draft ANALYSIS will be my last. Yes...the ANALYSIS is folding the tent.  I stated late last year that the ANALYSIS is much like a shark, swimming through the monochromatic depths of the open ocean. It must move forward, or it dies. After nearly 5 years of providing the type of coverage that readers demand, nay, RELY on in their daily lives, I must move on. I have done all I can do...I cannot continue to move forward. There are other blogs to write, other topics to cover.  Just like Sting disbanding The Police at the height of stardom, or Harper Lee never writing a follow up to “To Kill a Mockingbird”....the ANALYSIS is going out on top.

Do not despair, followers. I still love the Chargers. I always will. I was the guy listening on the radio in my parked car on a late rainy Oregon night to a Charger broadcast during an 8-8 season because it was not on TV. I was the guy who had his stomach in a knot as I painted my house listening to John Carney kick a 54 yard field goal against the Chiefs to go 1-15 and avoid a 0-16 season. I was the guy who dutifully monitored the TV whilst in Hawaii tracking the Chargers 2004 draft. I am that guy. And I will always be a fan. But, the ANALYSIS has run its course. As the Chargers turn the page with new coaches and GM, so does the ANALYSIS.

Ironically, I will be in Hawaii again during the 2013 Draft. Upon my return, I will fill you in on what the Chargers did, and what it means for the future. Hope, no doubt, will spring eternal again. 

BOLT ANALYSIS: THE YOUTH MOVEMENT

Hey All. I know you’ve missed me. The ANALYSIS has been busy with minor issues such as work, holidays, and life in general. Nothing as provocative or thrilling as watching and/or covering your San Diego Bolts. Actually, I must say it has been nice to watch football without the sad specter of another playoff-free season hovering over me. A pretty amazing past weekend of football games, eh? Seattle coming back with a massive 4^th quarter only to fall in the end.....Mighty Denver somehow giving up a 70 yard TD play at the end to fall to the Ravens....the new-look 49ers pulverizing the Packers...and the Patriots...ever steady with another home game to get to the Bowl. All good stuff. A few things I noticed over the weekend:

1) winning teams have good offensive lines.

2) mobile quarterbacks rule!

3) good teams find a way.

Man, if we could only get one of those three things in our Fall Stocking. I would be happy.

But, enough about that. The big news all season (covered by ANALYSIS COACH-WATCH 7000) was would the Chargers fire Norv?  More importantly, would the Chargers fire AJ? The answer was a much needed..”Yes” to both.  The search for a GM did not take long, with the Bolts passing over their in-house guy Jimmy Raye, and picking up 40 year old Tom Tolesco out of Indianapolis. The youngest GM in Charger history. A slight departure from the 63 year old AJ..would you say? Ironically, Jimmy Raye was picked up in Indy. The coaching carousel was fast and furious with the Chargers, as they were linked to interviews with Lovie Smith, Ken Whisenhunt, Jay Gruden (not Jon), Gus Bradley, Mike McCoy, and a couple of others. When both the Broncos and the Seahawks lost last week, it became clear that McCoy and Bradley were the two frontrunners. Shortly after the interview, McCoy became our next head coach.

I will not make any big, sweeping statements about the guy. I have no idea, nor do any prognosticators. He has never been a head coach before...he has been with Denver for 4 years and prior to that Carolina. He worked (and somehow won) with Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton at Quarterback prior to Manning. Here are some tidbits:

Jake Hester (currently a Bronco): “You are going to be happy with this choice.”

Dante Rosario (formerly a Bronco): “He is all business, but he is a guy you can talk to”.

Random Blogger from Denver: “I don’t think he is head coaching material”.

Another Denver comment: “Peyton Manning runs the offense, not McCoy”.

Kevin Acee after McCoy’s press conference: “He sure commands a room, this guy can communicate”.

Unnamed NFL Source: “the Chargers hit a home run with these two”.

Philip Rivers: “This is the guy I wanted”.

Look people, I don’t care what these guys have done. Let’s just watch what they do. The Spanos family has sent a clear message with these hires. Two 40-year olds? That is so very Anti-Charger.  The message is, “The Chargers are going to Change”.  I for one, think this is a good development.  Bringing in fresh ideas, a new look at the roster, some optimism and hope, and some experimentation? That all sounds good. These guys could be utterly overmatched and fail miserably. Sure. But, the fact that the Spanos Crew is hiring two guys who have NOT been there before tells me he is OK with giving them a prolonged chance to succeed. This is an acknowledgement that the team is not close. It is a team that needs to rebuild.

Having two young guys try and inject a new tradition of toughness and winning ways into the franchise. The ANALYSIS is OK with that.

Now, enjoy the offseason. I won’t bug you again until the DRAFT.

BOLT ANALYSIS: THE KING IS DEAD, LONG LIVE THE KING

Here we are, folks, on the cusp of the playoffs...for the third straight year on the outside looking in. I held off for a few days to write this final post for the 2012 season on the off-chance that the Chargers would announce some quick hire to fill their gaping holes at the top. Not yet. The rumor mill is swirling, although all of it to date has really been focused on the General Manager/Personnel position. The Monday after the season ended was quite a bloodbath for NFL coaches...7 firings. This, along with a handful of GMs, makes about ¼ of the League in serious transition. The Bolts are one of these teams. As expected, Spanos fired AJ Smith and Norv Turner on Monday, at the conclusion of a 7-9 season. Thus ends one of the most hopeful, and ultimately most frustrating, periods in Charger history. The ANALYSIS always takes a look back in order to better analyze the future. Previous epic posts have included in-depth missives on Charger playoff history and Draft history. I will not re-release those Dickensian posts...they stand strong on their own as snapshots in time. But, I will take a minute to discuss the Norv Turner era; I hope you will come along.

2007 – AJ had fired Marty Schottenheimer after losing offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs. The hiring of Norv was widely met with a “huh?”, but common sentiment was that Koko the Monkey could have coached that particular Charger team to the Promised Land. It almost happened in that first year. After an unbalanced start, and a 5-5 record, with LT claiming he was “lost” in the new offense, the team caught fire. They won their last 6 games and then beat Tennessee and Indianapolis on their way to a Championship Showdown against the undefeated Patriots. Problem was, Rivers had ripped a ligament, Gates had a busted foot, and LT had a phantom injury that pulled him out of play. The Boyz lost 21-12.

2008 – The loss of Shawne Merriman to a big injury (and Steroids let’s not forget) and uninspired play brought the team to a 4-8 record. However, they played in the Mild Mild West and they won their last 4 games to beat the Broncos and win the division, masking their poor play. However, they rallied again in the playoffs, beating Indianapolis and taking a halftime lead against the mighty Steelers...before succumbing in the cold. Again, with LT suffering a phantom injury.

2009 – The real headscratcher of a year. A team that seemed only decent on paper was a powerhouse. Finishing 13-3, with all the momentum in the world. Rivers had really arrived, playing incredibly all year long. Yet, the first round of the playoffs featured a hyped up Jets team, four Nate Kaeding missed field goals, a Cromartie give-up on a sure tackle, and a loss to the Jets. The headhunting for Norv had begun.

2010 – The team begins to be taken apart by AJ Smith. Turner, LT, are gone. Long term standoffs and fights with key players begin. Mathews is brought in...yet it is Sproles that still shines. The defense is soft...worst in the League at getting people off the field. The team misses the playoffs by one game

2011 – The team loses some of the strangest, craziest games in recent memory. AJ’s drafts and offseason moves do not help. The Quarterback has his worst year as a pro. It begins to be clear that we are no longer “tweaking” the team. Big changes are needed. The team misses the playoffs by one game.

2012 – Almost a carbon copy of 2011, despite big changes in free agency for the first time in years. This year started solid and devolved into a series of mistakes and offensive failures. Despite improved defense and special teams, the Quarterback remains in mighty struggle-mode, the running back a huge failure, and the offensive line a disgrace. Almost all the veterans brought in by AJ are bombs. The team misses the playoffs.

In the final analysis, people have been calling for Norv’s head since he got here. I don’t blame him for the playoff defeat in 2007. For that, I blame the injuries they had to Rivers and Gates, and I blame LT for not stepping up and realizing the team needed him to lead. When I hear this year that ROOKIE running back Trent Richardson played nearly the entire year with broken ribs, and I know Philip Rivers played that 2007 game with no ligament, it still makes me angry to picture sullen LT, sitting on the bench in a blanket, not playing because he was not “100%” in a playoff game. Norv got them there....and he coached them to a close game against an undefeated team without his best players. I don’t blame Norv for 2008 or 2009 playoff losses either. The 2009 team was very solid...good enough to win. Although he was out-coached by Rex Ryan that year, the team still would have won had Nate hit one field goal out of 4. If you want to blame a coach for a playoff loss...blame Schottenheimer for losing in 2006. That was the best team we have ever had, and he muffed that game.

What I blame Norv for is just this: he never was able to inspire his players to be better than they themselves expected to be. Some coaches can get that out of players...Norv cannot. He coaches in a steady, methodical way, he treats his players as men, he expects them to be accountable, he expects the guys to all play their roles, and he expects his best players to be their best. The problem with this is...NFL players are rarely accountable, they don’t act as men, they don’t play their best when they need to all the time. This is when these teams (and players) need that coach that will find the button in them. Make them better...make them play harder. Norv does not or cannot foster that as a coach. That being said, if Norv had the on-field leadership that Mike Tomlin or Bill Belichick or Tom Coughlin have had...would he have a ring by now? Don’t laugh...I think it is very possible. Players buying in to someone on-field is huge. I think we have not had a defensive identity since Merriman left. Rivers was our identity for a while but he is struggling now. I blame that just as much as Norv.

So, then, it is AJ Smith’s fault? Well, I think more of the blame certainly falls to him. Playing contract games with Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil, not re-signing Sproles and Mike Turner, letting ego cloud judgment on players like Mathews and Jared Gaither. AJ has let the air out of the balloon and he has failed. Just as he had built a really good team, he has now broken that team down. Kudos to Norv for saying at his farewell press conference that this team is not a playoff team, and fans should not expect that in the next few years. I am not defending Norv here...he is culpable too...but at least he is honest. He had nothing to work with the past two years, face it. This was not a playoff team.

I must now look back to something written in the ANALYSIS on January 7, 2010...three years ago.

To conclude, when someone asks you…what would you consider the Charger glory days? ....the answer must be…right now. These are them people, the Halcyon Days. We are living through them. Since the Super Bowl began, and in my lifetime, this is the longest, most sustained period of Charger success ever. The Fouts era that so many hold onto? It only led to 3 years of playoff teams. The Beathard Era with our lone Super Bowl appearance? It only led to 3 years of playoff teams. This current era has led to 5 years of playoff teams..including the current year. So, as we struggle and are critical of our boys, just remember that this is as good as Charger football has ever been. We need to enjoy it. Who knows what next season will bring? Or the one beyond that? Live in the moment, because as they say in Sports…there is no tomorrow.

Well, we are now at that tomorrow. That was written just before our crushing loss to the Jets after the 2009 season. We have not been back since. We now know what that next season (and the last three) have provided. Those “Halcyon Days?”......gone. That young and hopeful ANALYSIS....now a grizzled veteran.  So, what happens now? We are done with blaming people..the ANALYSIS must carry on, grizzled or otherwise.

For now, we will wait and wonder about our new coach and our new GM. Don’t get excited folks...it will not be a big name. Not a big NFL name...or even a big college name. Despite that, it may just be someone who can rebuild...and who can find that bit of inspiration. See, like I said, the 2012 ANALYSIS is all about HOPE.

Happy New Year!

BOLT ANALYSIS: AT LEAST WE AIN'T THE JETS

Hope you all had (or are having) a great holiday. At the beginning of each season, it is a fan’s rite of passage to look over the upcoming schedule and make some predictions about the games. The only thing consistent about these preseason prognostications are how inaccurate they usually area. A few years ago, the Chargers looked weak coming into the season and faced the then-powerful NFC East. They proceeded to beat the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, and Redskins that year. Who knew? This year, when the schedule came out, you saw late season road games against the Steelers and the Jets and you figured those would be two tough losses. Well, who could have predicted that both these teams would have tanked massively and would lose to the hapless Chargers? But, it happened. Yes, Virginia, the same Charger team that was demolished at home by Carolina a week ago. That is why we watch sports I suppose.

The Jets are clearly the most dysfunctional team in football.  The Tim Tebow experiment was a joke. Either let the guy play or don’t. They kept him as a high-priced distraction to mentally fragile Mark Sanchez and truly screwed both players up. A few years ago, the Jets were the chosen team...with a brash head coach and a room full of ballplayers. Well, they are in utter disarray now. We think we have it bad....not quite this bad. The Chargers had 11 sacks last Sunday! 11! That is truly an amazing stat. But it also shows you how much of a collective head game football is. There are two pro-Bowlers on the Jets O-Line. The Chargers were starting three rookies and a second year guy on defense. Yet...there it is...11 sacks.  Rookie Kendall Reyes had 3.5 by himself. But, sacks come in bunches. When the defense is teeing off like that, it can get ugly and spiral out of control. That is what happened to the Jets and their rookie QB from Alabama.  

The Chargers did not really move the ball well, did not run well, only attempted 22 passes and completed 11 of them. Their only score in the first quarter was a punt return for a TD by Michael Spurlock. After some mishaps, they found themselves down 14-7. Ryan Mathews broke his other clavicle and is out for the year. This former first round draft pick’s career is on the edge folks. He regressed tremendously this year, and I think the high hopes for him are pretty much gone. But, with the defense playing so well, it just took a couple of breaks and a couple of turnovers and the Boyz turned a 14-7 deficit into a 27-14 lead. A pair of touchdown passes (to Alexander and Gates) and the Bolts put away the Jets. It was nice to see Alexander beat Antonio Cromartie for the score. All the bad taste you had in your mouth related to the Jets (LT and Cromartie going to them...the playoff losses to them) kind of just have fizzled away. This is just a bad team now, LT has retired in a sad way, and all of their previous swagger has dissolved.

But, we are not here to talk about the Jets. What does this game mean to us? Realistically, it probably did not help us much. Now, we face the prospect of a season closing game (blacked out for sure) against the hopeless Raiders. We will likely win this game. That will put us at 7-9 to end the season. 7-9....all that gets us is a kick in the ass home for the playoffs and a bad draft pick. Had we lost to the Jets and Raiders...we would likely be in the top 5 at the end of the year, with a chance to get a real difference maker. Maybe a left tackle who could block? Now we are in the middle of the draft. Oh well. Cannot worry too much about Draft picks in December. As you all know, we are looking at a new coach. The rumor mill has been beefing up that our pick may be Bruce Arians from Indianapolis. Arians was Pittsburgh’s coordinator for years before moving over to the Colts to work for Pagano. When Pagano was diagnosed with cancer and stepped down for most of the season, Arians has run the team. Well, they just made the playoffs, are 10-5, and are playing great. How much of this is Andrew Luck? Don’t know. But I do know that the Colts were 1-15 last year. That is one spectacular turnaround. Will this guy be our coach? Don’t know, but he certainly fits the profile. He is friends with the other Pagano (our defensive coordinator), he is a team-related guy and not a power broker, so he can work with the Spanos folks. Makes sense. We shall see.

As far as players go, we will see another big changing of the guard. I have to believe they will dump Jared Gaither and his worthless work ethic. I have to believe they will not re-sign guys like Quentin Jammer and maybe Takeo Spikes and Shawn Phillips..cornerstones of the team who may have lost a step or two. I believe they will re-sign guys like Antoine Cason and Louis Vazquez. I believe they will try to sign Denario Alexander. I believe their main argument will be the Philip Rivers is still a great quarterback...he just needs protection. They will go hard after some offensive linemen and try to shore up that problem. Is that the answer? Well, anyone who has watched Philip the last few years has to believe it is deeper than that.  But, my guess is that out of respect to the franchise QB, they will take this tack. They also will need to get a new running back. They need to have a true backup to Mathews (who may not be a backup for long). Ryan will get another year, for sure, but he is too fragile physically and mentally to carry the load. He just does not have it in him. The Chargers will build around their youth and strength on defense. The D-line looks good...Reyes, Luiget, and Cam Thomas are very good young players. Donald Butler and Eric Weddle are guys you can build around. They need to find a strong corner and another linebacker...but the defense is not far away.

But...that is enough for now. Suffice to say...many changes coming. Although we have known it for a few years, the top team we had from 2006-2009 is LONG gone. Whatever happens next weekend is really immaterial at this point. Let the changes begin.

Happy New Year to All! Here’s to a great 2013.

BOLT ANALYSIS: SOME PERSPECTIVE

There is not much to say today. The fact that the Chargers game was blacked out was obviously a good thing. The game was so bad, even the Red Zone Channel did not waste much time on it. So, it must be said that this week’s ANALYSIS is not really coming from a first-hand account. But, you know all you need to know about our team. Normally, when a team is doing poorly or coming to the end of a bad season, you can evaluate young players...and look for the rays of hope out there. I tell ya, followers, it is not a hopeful place.....Chargerville. There is just next to nothing to get excited about. Losing 31-7 at home to a 4-8 team is bad enough. Doing it in such a way that the stadium is completely empty by the start of the 4^th quarter is pretty amazing. We knew the season was lost a number of weeks ago...and now I think we know that the locker room is lost too.  It is still just crazy to contemplate that we beat the Steelers last week.  Not sure how that happened with this offense. Anyway, a couple of factoids:

·         A total of 164 total yards of offense. Six more sacks given up.

·         31-0 at one point, and the Chargers had run two plays on the Carolina end of the field.

·         Ryan Mathews breaks his “other” clavicle and is done for the year. This, after 4 carries for 22 yards.  Ryan had 1 touchdown this year. 1! Former Chargers Mike Tolbert, Darren Sproles, Michael Turner, and, yes, even Jake Hester each have more than that. I am not being dramatic at all when I say that Ryan was supposed to replace or supplant all of those players (oh yeah, and LT!).

·         Philip Rivers fumbles the ball 4 more times, losing two of them. Mr. Rivers leads the League in turnovers for the second consecutive year...I think the number is 46 turnovers in the past two years.

·         “Star” performers such as Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, Meacham, invisible for most of the day. At least Gates caught a TD and has a Charger record, such as it is.

·         “Exciting” young players like Melvin Ingram, Larry English, etc. largely irrelevant.

We are just going to ride out these last few games now. With all the guys hurt, and all the guys out for the year, why risk anyone now?  Why not sit Rivers and let Charlie “Clipboard Jesus” Whitehurst have a shot? Why not sit Gates and let Ladarius Green take some lumps? I think they could suit up Natrone Means and he would do just as well as our 4^th string running back, or wherever we will be at that position. We play the Jets and the Raiders and the only good thing that can happen now are two losses that get us a better drafting position.

Like I said, there is nothing else to really talk about. I could berate the entire team and management for another few paragraphs, but there is not much point. I could pontificate about who the next coach might be, but there will be a better time for that. The end is here for the Bolts....losing record, no playoffs, and, really, no hope. The guys in that list above are our best guys. The Math don’t lie.

It bothers me that these posts cannot be more positive. Sports are supposed to provide a release from everyday life. Something fun and diverting...something that gets your mind off of some of the darker or harder parts of your life.  This is certainly the way the ANALYSIS views the sports world. So, despite the passion and outrage that the ANALYSIS sometimes (most of the time) exhibits while viewing sports, whenever things get a little too upsetting in the Sports world, it usually just takes a minute to put things back in perspective. That became oh so evident last Friday. I spent Friday morning with my daughter’s class and one other class. She is 6 years old and in first grade. I helped herd about 60 kids down to a holiday showing of the “Nutcracker”, about ½ mile down the street from her school.  The kids were excited; excited to go for a walk, excited to hold hands with their friends, excited that some of their parents were there, excited that they were going to see a play, excited about seeing Christmas lights in somebody’s yard, excited to see a cat in someone’s garage.  I got home from that experience to see the news from Connecticut. It has been difficult to watch and read the coverage ever since, as I’m sure it has been for all of you. I am not going to go political here...speaking of gun control, mental illness, or the state of our national media. I just keep thinking of the simple excitement of a first grader. And that puts everything in perspective.  

BOLT ANALYSIS: MEET THE NEW BOSS, SAME AS THE OLD BOSS

This past week was one of the most interesting in Charger history. We will get to the crazy, bizzarro-world football game in a minute. The first thing that the ANALYSIS must discuss is that the mellow San Diego media ignited a load of controversy by printing an article that emphatically stated that Norv Turner and AJ Smith would be fired at the end of the season. The author, Kevin Acee, has been with the Chargers for a long time. He was their beat writer for a number of years, often penning funny and insightful bits about players and the state of the team. This year, he was promoted to columnist, where for some reason he has become a flamethrower and an instigator. Maybe he thinks he needs to be sharp and cutting and have an opinion now?  For whatever reason, his (not very good) columns have been pretty harsh and in my opinion off the mark most of the time.  In any event, his article was so sure of itself, it left no room for argument.  The article not only said that Norv and AJ were gone, but it even named replacements for AJ’s job and the Director of Player Development position (or something that sounds like that). According to Acee, in-house guys Jimmy Raye and John Spanos are the guys who will move up. No word on head coach yet, but this is pretty meaty stuff. When, inevitably, Dean Spanos was forced to answer the article, he said that “nothing has been decided and only I make those decisions”. Rather than just holding his punches, Acee wrote another one deriding Spanos for not hitting the issue head on and again citing his “impeccable” sources for the story. Wow! This is something that happens in other sports markets all the time. But in mellow, mild, SD? No way. Whether it turns out to be true we shall have to wait and see. But, in my opinion it makes perfect Charger sense (read: oxymoron). This is the Spanos’ team. They have molded guys like Jimmy Raye and John Spanos to do this type of work. Why wouldn’t they keep it in the family? Why would they go out and get some big name or names to come in and take the team away from them? That has never been how they roll. The series of head coaches over the years bear that out. A big name coach like a Gruden, Cowher, Reid, etc. is not in the cards for these guys. We can speculate more on this later but the bottom line followers, the Bolts are in Spanos’ world...and we will continue living in it.

So, in the midst of all this distraction, the injury reports came out. The Chargers would be down 4 offensive linemen, three starters and a key backup. They would be starting Reggie Wells (just picked up) at Right Tackle, Kevin Haslam (undrafted rookie) at Left Tackle, and Rex Hadnot at Guard. With no depth, they had another rookie (Colin Baxter) backing up. This makeshift line for a team that had not scored an offensive touchdown in a couple of games. Pittsburgh came in with the #1 rated defense in the League. The Chargers had not won at Pittsburgh in the regular season since well before the birth of the ANALYSIS. All logic pointed to a beatdown, or at least a low-scoring affair where the home team embarrassed the Charger offense (again). But, that is why we watch the game, right?

The Chargers came out with a conservative, protective game plan (duh) and played smart. The defense was its typical tough self, playing well and winning the field position game. The punter kept pinning the Steelers deep, we were getting off the field on 3^rd down. Now, the offense struggled at times, let’s be fair. But as the first half went along, we did what we could to put them to sleep. A 51 yard field goal, a great double move by Denario Alexander for a TD, and another Novak field goal made it, incredibly, 13-0. If it wasn’t for some classic Charger time management problems, the half would have ended like that. But, they gave up the last drive and it was 13-3. For those who watched the game, I know you were thinking what I was thinking:  Well...another tough half where slowly we will give this thing back up. You were just waiting for that patented bonehead play that turns a good game into a loss. It had to happen, right?

Well, the opening drive of the second half was the best thing the Chargers have done all year. You know that Steeler coach Mike Tomlin laid into those guys in the locker room. They came out breathing fire, the crowd tried to get rolling. There was a 99% chance that the Bolts go three and out. But....oh my....what the Boyz did was put together nearly a TEN MINUTE drive. A thing of beauty that included 5 third down conversions and smart check down plays over and over. Even when they ran the ball on 3^rd and 13 (the right play) to set up a field goal....Ronnie Brown broke it for 17 yards and a first down. When Rivers hit Floyd on a little pass to make the score 20-3...you had to be impressed. This is what a good team can do. True to form, when teams do good things..more good things often happen. Big Ben throws a screen pass off the ass of his player and Jammer collects it in the end zone. 27-3 San Diego. The score got to 34-10 on another pass and catch of beauty between Rivers and Alexander and the Chargers cruised to victory from there. Throw in a great job by our defense...a fake punt!...and an interception by Bront Bird (another guy we cut before the season started) and there you have it. Best win of the year by far.

It is easy, followers, easy to start forgiving. It is too easy to say...wow, maybe we are not that bad after all. Maybe we are actually pretty good. Well, folks, we cannot do it. A win like this just makes me angry. Angry that when our team was healthy and complete we blew huge leads to the Saints and Broncos. Angry that we gave up a 4^th and 29 to the Ravens. Angry that Robert Meacham dropped the winning touchdown at the Browns. Angry that we were bumbling idiots against the Buccaneers. What the hell? Why is it that Norv can coach his ass off when all hope is lost? Why does Rivers put together a heroic effort when they have nothing to lose? How can three offensive linemen off the street outplay the huge contract players like Jeromey Clary and Jared Gaither and Tyronne Green. How can a guy who has never played for the team in Denario Alexander come in and look like Jerry Rice after a couple of games? How can Michael Spurlock, cut in the preseason, come back to have his best game as a pro against the toughest defense in the League. There is no answer. It is sports, baby. And it is why we watch.

So, where do we go from here? Does this team put together a run and finish 8-8? Does it matter now? The San Diego Union-Tribune tells us it will not matter. The newspaper says our coach and General Manager are done. All we are playing for now is pride, and a higher draft pick.  As the ANALYSIS has cautioned in the past....be careful what you wish for. How many of you jumped for joy when Bobby Ross got fired and we hired Kevin Gilbride? How about June Jones? What about Mike Riley? When Marty Schottenheimer was hired after a 1-15 season, what were you thinking? I bet you were not thinking Super Bowl. And when Norv took the reins, that decision was almost universally panned. Those people who scoffed at Schottenheimer somehow re-made their opinions and suddenly thought he was fantastic. It is all about winning, people, nothing else matters. Maybe Jimmy Raye and John Spanos will be winners....maybe not. Maybe the new head coach will create a spark...maybe not. We have three games to do some player evaluations and see how this team ends up. At least we know one thing, it will be interesting.