Despite my recent commentary along the lines of “It does not matter who we play..we just need to focus on our game”, I found myself thinking about matchups last week. Like most, my original take was that of the 3 teams we may get matched up against (Patriots, Bengals, and Jets) the Patriots were the most dangerous. Despite their on-again off-again season, even without the dangerous Wes Welker, it seemed that they had the best big play ability and, of course, Evil Bill on their side. After watching the Jets however, it might be a case of “be careful what you wish for”.
Yes folks, the Playoffs are upon us. And, if the first weekend is any indication, it is going to be another fascinating couple of weeks. There just is no better entertainment out there…seriously.
We will face the New York Jets; perhaps the luckiest and most unlikely playoff team on one hand…and just maybe the most dangerous on the other. Let’s review: The Jets come into the playoffs the beneficiaries of scheduling luck. In their 14th game, the Jets lost a meek and sad game to the Atlanta Falcons by the score of 10-7…prompting their first year Coach Rex Ryan to proclaim that they were “out of the playoffs”. Well, nice job at Math Rex. Not only were they not out of the playoffs, but they were looking ahead on their schedule to games against Indianapolis and Cincinnati. Normally, these would be two tough games; instead, the Jets get a major break as both teams sit their starters and hand wins to them…allowing a 9-7 finish and a re-match against the over the top and gone Bengals. Did anyone really think the Bengals would regroup yesterday after the beatdown the week before? I think not. And here they are….coming to San Diego after the Patriots forgot kickoff time and just acted like they wanted off the field against Baltimore. A digression if you will permit me…on the Patriots. I don’t think Wes Welker’s sad injury and absence had much to do with this outcome. Julian Edelman played great in his place. In fact, Edelman seemed to be the only guy fighting out there. This team laid down. After a crazy and unlucky sequence of early events with turnovers, a huge running play, and mistakes…they just played the rest of the game at half speed. Moss was jogging around, Brady seemed in a fog. While Baltimore had their typical aggressive play…the Pats really threw in a bad one. Any more insights from Paul would be welcome. I thought the Ravens could win…but not like that.
Anyway, back to the Jets. So, we have established they are lucky. The other reasons they are an unlikely playoff winner are: Rookie QB, First Year Coach, and they have played an “easy” schedule, including the lay down games mentioned above. For all those reasons, the Chargers should be clear favorites. All right, so here is why we should be very, very wary of the Jets: 1) They are playing loose with nothing to lose, 2) They are an old school (defense and running the ball) team, and 3) they have “it”. Let me explain. This team just believes it can win. Period. Their coach does..their young QB does…and their fantastic defense does. They are loose and aggressive and they have high confidence. Purists will say that those “lay down” games are meaningless and they overinflate a team’s ego. Maybe. But remember early in the year…the Chargers were 2-3 and had big wins against bad teams Kansas City and Oakland? The ANALYSIS spoke of confidence…and what that does for a team despite the opponent. What happened after those games? Look it up…we have not lost yet.
The Jets do not care that teams laid down for them or that they were playing an emotionally spent and over-rated Bengals team in the Playoffs. Their Coach and their players believe that they have made a huge playoff run, beat an undefeated team, and are rolling. Belief is reality guys…and that makes them dangerous.
Secondly, they are an old school team. They have the highest rated defense and the highest rated running game in the League. Their secondary is great. Darrelle Revis is, for my money, the best corner in the League. Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene are a great running tandem. Their Offensive Line is awesome with three pro bowlers. This is an old fashioned team. If Mark Sanchez can simply manage the ball…they can be very, very tough. Now, stats are stats. You cannot really trust them. The Chargers have certain stats against the teams they played as the Jets do against their opponents. It is not apples to apples. It is about matchups….and Vincent Jackson against Revis will be fun.
Finally, the “It” factor. Every year there is a team that just catches fire from the wildcard ranks and goes nuts: Pittsburgh did, the Giants did, the Ravens did last year. Can the Jets be that team? Will the ball bounce right for them? Will they get the breaks, the penalties, the turnovers, the little things? For our sake I hope not.
Here is how we can avoid that…three simple things:
1) DEFENSIVE RECIPE. We have used it all year long. Bend but don’t break on defense and keep the play in front of you. Bottle up the running backs and don’t give up big plays. Yards are meaningless…points have meaning. Let the Jets run the ball but tighten and force field goal attempts. Sanchez will scramble, he will make plays. He may just have a “career game” against the Chargers. Most do. It does not matter. Rattle him a bit…make some stops. Just don’t give up big plays.
2) AVOID TURNOVERS. My biggest fear for this game is that the Jets’ complicated blitzing packages and great secondary will force turnovers. Norv and Phillip have really worked on avoiding turnovers and beating blitzes this year and they will need all of that on Sunday. Bad turnovers can ruin a game quick (read: New England yesterday). This is huge.
3) BE OURSELVES ON OFFENSE. Come into this game confident. Despite their defense…can they really match up for 60 minutes on Jackson, Gates, Floyd, Sproles, LT, etc.? Mix it up, let Philip throw the ball, don’t get conservative. If anyone still thinks that Norv cannot call a great game after this winning streak, you are crazy. Don’t be shy guys…we are at home…it is the playoffs…we are better than them…Bring it!
So, that is it. Let’s have a good week of practice and go out on Sunday and punch this team in the head. Enjoy the buildup…the talking heads will drone on all week about the items I have outlined above. Maintain the focus.
I agree that the Jets are a serious contender and should not be overlooked for a showdown with the Colts. They are an interesting team, the polar opposite of the Chargers really. They are "old school," as Jason says, running the ball and playing great defense. We are, uh, "new school," throwing the ball and playing just-good-enough defense. When you look at the Colts-Ravens, there's the same thing. A few years ago when the Colts won the Super Bowl, no one said they could do it because they were so bad at stopping the run. Manning just threw more TDs. The Ravens QB Flacco had a statistically awful game, I think he was 4-10 for 36 yards or something crazy...and his team won. They had 250 yards on the ground or whatever and their defense forced turnovers.
ReplyDeleteSo two different approaches, really built around the players and the coaches. Its when those teams go against each other, the new school vs the old school that it gets interesting. I think this game is hard to predict, I think it will come down to some unlikely heros and big plays. Which team can maintain its identity, play the way they want to play?
So this gets to my advice, which is you hit them hard offensively right off the bat. Go deep into the playbook, bring in Nanee or Buster Davis, who earned at least a throw in this game. Mix it up. Get a lead and dont let them play their game. Put pressure on Sanchez, force him to make some bad plays. Make him beat you, because I dont think he can. Play our game. Our game has won 11 in a row, it works. A few weeks ago the Jets were 7-7, so while they have some impressive stats, that hasnt meant wins this season. And it wont mean a win on Sunday either.
All I can say is that I'm sooooooo glad that I can watch the playoffs this year with babies on the outside and not the inside! The Colts game almost put me into labor last year and it scared me so much that Jeff had to watch the Steelers game at a friend's house. I guess it was a sign that last year wasn't meant to be...............
ReplyDeleteOkay, enough meaningless ramble. It's not going to be an easy game by any means, but I think our boys can pull it off!
Go Bolts!
Yes, we must have confidence. We must play our game. You cannot win a playoff game by trying not to lose. We did that in 2004 and 2006 and that is the reason Schottenheimer got fired. "Unlikely heroes and big plays"...Jeff, I totally agree. That is what it is all about. Look at 07 and 08, in our big playoff wins it has been Billy Volek, Sproles, Nanaee, that have come up big. Use the whole team guys...there is some merit to the fact we won our last game with backups...use our depth. And yes, Charger playoff games are known to induce labor so be careful out there.
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