It’s that time of year again in Sports….hockey playoffs, basketball playoffs, baseball has begun, the Kentucky Derby looms…and….the granddaddy of them all….the RELEASE OF THE 2010-2011 NFL SCHEDULE!
As a shameless precursor to the greatest non-sporting event in sports…the NFL Draft….the League has released its schedule. Countless football freaks scurry into a secluded place and begin to piece together their season predictions. Matching up home games…thinking about road trips…analyzing matchups. You know I am not talking about me, right?
Well, today’s edition of the ANALYSIS focuses on this massive event, as well as the upcoming three-day NFL Draft Spectacular.
In my last post, we went through the off-season activity engaged in by the Chargers. LT and Cromartie are Jets, Jamal is a Bronco, and several other key guys have changed teams. The only significant activity since that post (and refer to it if you need a complete player list) is the trade of third string QB Charlie Whitehurst and the signing of Defensive Backs Donald Strickland and Nathan Vasher. The Whitehurst deal is great…a trade of second round picks this year (we move up 20 spots in the second round) and a third round pick next year. Seattle really wanted this guy…never thrown a NFL pass in a regular season game…and we get a couple of nice picks. Cool. The pick-ups of Strickland and Vasher are good too. Veteran corners who have played at a high level in the past. Should bring some much needed leadership and experience to our secondary.
But…as I outlined before….despite all of the high profile deletions from the team, I cannot help but think there has not been any high profile addition. The apparent retention of V Jackson, Merriman, Sproles, McNeil, and Floyd is a good thing…and maybe that is high profile, but I just think that something else is coming. Some trade in the next couple days, or at the Draft itself, that brings a big name to the Chargers. Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that I think we need a big name necessarily, but I just think AJ has something up his sleeve. We have stockpiled a few extra high round draft picks next year…I can see a trade of one or more of these picks for a running back. I can also see Merriman or Sproles being traded for the right price. Stay tuned…there will be some fireworks…I feel it.
Now, on to the schedule. If you have not seen it, there are a number of interesting games. Opening on the road at Kansas City on Monday night football, which is cool, and no fewer than FIVE prime time matchups: Two Monday night games, two Sunday night games, and one Thursday night game the night after Christmas. Someone thinks the Chargers are exciting to watch I guess. So…that is cool.
I have been caught in the trap of looking at the schedule before…thinking about whether we have a “soft” or difficult schedule. This analysis is wasted…because in the modern day NFL teams change annually. Free agency and contracts have made the NFL a merry-go-round of players. So, the teams that were bad last year can improve dramatically. In 2008, I thought we had an easy schedule playing a mediocre NFC South. As it turned out, New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina all beat us up. So…I am done with that type of previewing. But, I will focus on some facts of the schedule and let you make up your own minds.
· Opponents: Raiders twice, Chiefs twice, Broncos twice. All three teams appear to be still in rebuild mode. Playing the NFC West this year: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, and St. Louis. The weakest division in football last year. Hard to argue that these 10 games are not fortuitous for us..again, sticking to facts here. Despite my admonishment of these types of predictions in the above text, any half-baked analyst will tell you that the AFC and NFC West were the two weakest divisions in football last year.
· We also play decade-long nemeses Indianapolis and New England, last year’s surprise Cincinnati, and a solid trio of AFC South teams in Jacksonville, Houston, and Tennessee.
· Four of the first six games are on the road and the last two games of the season are on the road. This is tough…no time for another patented slow start.
· A stretch late in the season where we have 4 of 5 at home including a bye in the sixth week. A nice stretch where we can settle in and hopefully do some damage at home.
· Last two games on the road in cold-weather places (Cincy and Denver). Don’t like this at all. Although we have played well late in the season the past couple of years, these are not easy games.
So…there it is. The 2010-2011 schedule. Another fun year ahead. A fair schedule….that is all I will say. Don’t think it is “easy” at all, even though statistically it is the 4th easiest in the League in terms of opponents’ winning percentages from last year.
Now, on to the DRAFT. With the departure of LT and Jamal Williams, most of the prognosticators are saying the Chargers will be drafting a Running Back and a Nose Tackle with their first two picks. While this is entirely possible, I am not banking on AJ going with the formula.
With Cromartie gone and our pass coverage and pass rushing our biggest weakness…I would not be surprised to see a safety or cornerback taken first or second. Even with the two new veteran corners we brought in, we have never had a real replacement for Rodney Harrison at Safety and I’m not sure the team believes that Antoine Cason is the end all be all at Corner. I have also heard rumors that the plan is ultimately to move Quentin Jammer to safety…where he would be awesome by the way….but right now he is our team’s best corner so that is not happening this year. So…look at Safety or Corner too in addition to Running Back and Nose Tackle.
Other spots we need to fill:
· 3rd string Quarterback -- need to replace Whitehurst
· Tight end/blocker – need to replace Manumaleuna and Norv Turner loves this position
· Pass Rusher – Outside Linebacker. Even though they took Larry English in the first round last year, don’t be surprised if they draft another similar player. There seems to be no chance that Merriman will be around next year and our defense is predicated on outside linebackers getting to the QB.
· Right Tackle – We need more depth at the tackle position.
So, with all the crazy “Mock Drafts” and similar picks going on out there, who the heck knows which players the Chargers are shooting for? Let’s just hope they add some role players who can make an impact. Some names I have heard from my sources:
Running Back: Jahvid Best (Cal), Toby Gearhart (Stanford), Ryan Matthews (Fresno State)
Nose Tackle: Terrence Cody (Alabama), Linval Joseph (E Carolina), Cam Thomas (North Carolina)
Safety/Corner: Chris Cook (Virginia), Kyle Wilson (Boise State), Devin McCourty (Rutgers)
Enjoy the Draft….and watch for some fireworks!
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