BOLT ANALYSIS: THE STATE OF THINGS

Happy Spring Bolt fans! The ANALYSIS, much like time and tide, has rolled on and is poised for another year. The last post, on January 3, announced that the forecast for the Chargers (and the entire NFL) was “murky with some haze”. Well, that is certainly still the case. The Players and the Owners are locked in a seemingly useless series of mediations, there has been the expected lockout, and there still appears to be a wide gulf between the parties. The 2011-2012 Season is still very much in doubt. This doubt has frozen most of the offseason moving and shaking that typically goes on. Very few players getting signed or released…no trades allowed…nobody willing to jump until they know the new rules. However, the NFL continues to move forward with all guns blazing, hyping the upcoming Draft and releasing the schedule for this coming season. Sad, really, because with the state of baseball (fans being beaten at Dodger stadium, Bonds found guilty, Padres a meager farm-club) and NBA basketball (so stultifyingly boring and filled with thuggery it is rendered unwatchable) the NFL is once again poised to be a ratings and popularity juggernaut. But, of course, greed and money get in the way once again. Amongst all of this, don’t forget the stadium hopscotch that may go on soon. Will we become the LA Chargers?

So, taken together, there is enough news to merit the first post of the year.

Offseason dealings

The only real news is that Vincent Jackson has been “tagged” as the team’s Franchise Player and the team has signed the once-excellent strong safety Bob Sanders. In the case of VJ, assuming the new bargaining agreement gets approved and it is similar to the old, the franchise tag will ensure he is a Charger one more year and he will be paid the average of the top 5 or so receivers in the League. Still don’t think he will ever get the long term contract but it seems that he is OK with the big one year payday and he will be here. Who knows, maybe fences get mended between him and AJ? We shall see. Sanders is an interesting pickup. This guy was the best safety in the League (sorry Polamalu and Ed Reed) for a couple of years. He is a smart, hard hitting, solid character guy. Problem is, he has been hurt the last 2 ½ seasons. Still, safety has been a weak point for the Chargers since they let Rodney Harrison go. Sanders is not a long term option, but if he can return and play a whole season….even at 75% of his former self, he will help out the secondary big time. So, I like the move.

No Contract Guys

Nothing new to say on all the unsigned guys. No reason (and now no ability) to sign them given the uncertainty. We have spoken of the long list of uncertains before:  Sproles, Floyd, Weddle, Clary, Cooper, Volek, Burnett, and Siler to name the major ones. The rumors I hear is that Weddle, Clary, Burnett and Volek are likely to be resigned and Cooper, Siler, and Sproles are likely to be gone. Who knows? Only AJ I guess.

Draft

The uncertainty surrounding players will have a very big impact on the Draft. Teams like the Chargers really cannot take chances that they will be able to sign guys. Given that, it would seem the Chargers are well-positioned this year. The recent trades of Cromartie and Whitehurst have led to extra picks so the Bolts have 5 picks in the first 3 rounds. That is good because they have traded away their 4^th and 5^th round picks. So…in all, the Chargers have 8 picks coming up. So, what are they going to do? AJ has had a propensity to trade up to get guys he likes, giving up lots of picks for guys like Mathews, Weddle, Hester, and Donald Butler last year. Will he do that again? Probably. He tends to fall in love with guys and do whatever it takes to get them. Unlike the practice of Evil Bill, who stockpiles draft picks and chooses for volume. I think this year, we need to move toward the Evil Bill model. We need depth on this team, and we need impact players. We cannot suffer through another year with an anemic pass rush….an inability to stop 3^rd downs from our opponents, an inability to consistently tackle people, and an sporadic rushing game. All that being said, I hope we use all 5 of those first 3 round picks to grab guys to fill roles. Now, the ANALYSIS does not get into the whole “Mock Draft” thing. It is amazing how much type and time is given to forecasting draft picks. Most of these Mock Drafts are so completely blown out by the 10^th pick that they are no longer even interesting. That being said, here is what the Bolts need, in the humble opinion of the ANALYSIS. This will come as zero surprise.

Pass Rushing Linebacker/End: The Merriman fallout continues. We have limped along without a consistent outside pass rush for three years now. Shawn Phillips is a great player, and I am not ready to give up on Larry English (a #1 round pick) but after that we are thin. We need an impact guy who can get to the QB and we need some scheme diversity in our blitzes and pass rush. Too often, it is just a couple of guys flailing away at their respective linemen while the opposing QB stands there.

Slot Cornerback/Safety: While we have some good starters in Jammer and Cason, we need a guy who can consistently play in the slot against tight ends and 3^rd receivers. Those guys tend to kill us. Ideally, this player could move back into a safety role if necessary but his first priority would be to break up 3^rd down plays and make plays underneath. Steve Gregory has filled this role well at times but not good enough.

Wide Receiver: VJ may be gone soon. Floyd is uncertain. Almost certainly the team will get rid of former first round pick Buster Davis and formerly highly touted Legadu Naanee. That leaves Patrick Crayton and Seyi Ajirotutu. Given that, drafting a receiver is a requirement.

Inside Linebacker: All three of the inside ‘backers who took most of the snaps last year are unsigned. Mainstay Stephen Cooper, Kevin Burnett, and Siler. Burnett had a great year and the smart money says he is rewarded with a contract. Smart money also says that longtime Charger Cooper is probably gone. When healthy, he is a good leader and a smart player, but he is prone to injury and we now have a new D coordinator. Siler is a good role player and special teamer and he is great in short yardage situations, but they may try and upgrade. They also signed Donald Butler last year and he got hurt right away in practice. They are very high on him so look for him to play a major role. All that beign said, we need depth here. We need a sure tackler who is versatile and can go sideline to sideline.

Offensive Tackle: People always want to criticize Jeromy Clary at Right Tackle, saying he is the weak link on our line. I am not a hater on Clary. He came back from a major injury and played EVERY SNAP last year. That is amazing. Now, he will never be a great run blocker, and they may need that. But he has gotten better each year and is solid and reliable. Despite this, he is unsigned, and they should add depth and pressure all their linemen by grabbing a tackle. Hey, Phillip Rivers is the franchise…you gotta protect him. And with Mathews and Tolbert they may have a good thing going in the running game. Need the big boys to keep the ball moving.

So, those are my Big 5. The remaining picks should be used for Special Teams depth, backup running back maybe, and at some point gotta start getting a QB ready to step in when Volek enters the Assisted Living Facility. We shall see. The DRAFT begins next week. Tune in, because, really, what the hell else is going on in Sports right now. Please don’t try to tell me that the Lakers are relevant.

That is about it, followers, I hope you will share this next season with me once again; whenever it starts. I will be back with a post-Draft breakdown of the new Chargers. The ANALYSIS stands ready to serve for another year, as we continue the quest to hoist the prize.