BOLT ANALYSIS: WEEK 5 -- THE WORST 4-1 TEAM IN FOOTBALL? HOPEFULLY NOT.

We have reached the first (and only) break in the 2011-2012 season. The Chargers enter their bye week in desperate need of a rest. For those of us who study the schedule and piece together some prognostication at the beginning of the year, a 4-1 mark and first in the AFC West was right about where we figured we should be. Now, clearly, where we “should” be has not been close to where we have actually been in the last few years. But this year appears to be an exception. Once again, yesterday, we beat a team we “should” beat. In fact, that is the 4th such game we have played. The combined record of the teams we have beaten is 4-15. We have done nothing special. But special don’t matter in the standings. Fans (such as the ANALYSIS) continue to lament the lack of style points to these wins. But I’d rather be known as the “Worst 4-1 team in Football” than the “Best 2-3 team”…our usual moniker at this point in the game slate.


So, here we go. For three quarters + yesterday, this game was a beatdown. We drove the ball well, ran through them, converted first downs, and utterly stopped their offense. Ryan Mathews again showed his talent….looking especially strong and fast for much of the game. We were winning the line battles and opening holes. On defense, they could not do anything right. Kyle Orton was hideous…missing open receivers…throwing a pick….looking confused. They could not convert any third downs and the rout was on….or was it? Nope. Unfortunately, our Red Zone performance was miserable again. Needing to go for short field goals instead of TDs. What the hell is going on? You cannot blame penalties because we had exactly ZERO of those yesterday, which was great. Is it play calling, execution, Rivers getting jumpy and happy feet, lack of a healthy Gates, Floyd and Jackson? I don’t know, but it is very tiresome. Three great drives ended in short field goals and Rivers and Crayton botched a short pass that went for a pick 6 the other way. Despite utter domination, it was 16-10 and it should have been 24-3 at least. Then, however, we had what is my favorite play of the season so far. The D stopped the stinking Orton on a three and out and we got the ball back with less than 2 minutes in the half. Looking like they were playing for the field goal..with a couple of runs and a spike..suddenly Norv dialed up a beauty on a 30+ yard TD pass to wide open Floyd. That was good stuff…and got us a 23-10 lead at the half.

Despite the divine intervention of The Messiah…oops I mean Tim Tebow…starting the second half. It was more of the same…Chargers driving and getting a field goal….Broncos going three and out. The third quarter ended just as the half had ended…domination. The Broncos were asleep…there was quiet in the mile-high air. After a Charger field goal put us up by 16 points, things began to change. It started with a very strange drive. We were rolling with the ball when suddenly we took a sack, then the ball squirted out of Rivers’ hand for a 17 yard loss. Huh? The crowd started stirring…and Tebow began to find his feet.

The Broncos and Tebow started driving nicely with running plays. Don’t bother throwing the ball Tim. The Chargers Defense started backing up….missing tackles…hoping someone else would step up. Nobody did. Tebow ran in a ridiculously easy 10 yard score…then McGahee blew over Weddle for a two point conversion. Just like that…it was a one possession game. Unbelievable considering the Broncos had 5 first downs total going into the fourth quarter. On the ensuing drive, Rivers made another critical error. Despite having some time to step up…he hesitated on a rush and then lurched forward trying to make a play…the ball was tipped out of his hand and the Broncos recovered. No question a fumble…and guess what happened? Another drive of McGahee and Tebow runs and then, with Weddle trying a blitz…Tebow calmly completed a little pass over Weddle’s head on a screen which led to an easy 27 yard touchdown pass. With everyone in the stadium expecting a Tebow or McGahee run (we had been run over by both of them) for the two point conversion…the Bronco coaches made a mistake. Our defense was gassed, embarrassed, and reeling. We would not have been able to stop them running it in. Instead, they dial up a fade…which Tebow actually threw pretty well. But Cason made a nice play to knock it away. HUGE play, because we retained the lead. Another absolutely life saving throw to Malcom Floyd on a 3rd and 8 got us down the field and killed the clock. Rivers misses that throw and we lose the game. Period. With the help of a couple of penalties we got in line for another field goal. Nick Novak calmly nailed it and we were up by 5. Very big…because Tebow was itching to get back in and if we were down by less than 3…he would have got it. Let’s talk about Novak. Wow….11 for 11. He is not just making these kicks, he is drilling them. There has been no doubt of these going through. Even hit a 51 yarder yesterday. What a find he has been. As I said last week…Kaeding could be on his way out.

Even with only a handful of seconds left and no time outs, Tebow made it far more interesting than it should have been. A circus catch by Brandon Lloyd…and then a wide open tight end grab over the middle put them in a realistic spot to make a last effort. Tebow ran around back there avoiding our fatties (man, should NFL players really get that tired after hardly playing for three quarters?). That was pathetic. Anyway, Tebow bought time and almost connected. But, alas the ball fell incomplete and the game was in the books.

Sigh. Last week I closed with the following comments: Stay on Target. Focus. Bear Down. Manage the Game. Well, they did that for three quarters. Not enough. This game should have been iced early. Even quotes from Jammer and Weddle after the game bear this out. Jammer: “We were just trying to get out of there and they started making plays”. Weddle: “None of that stuff matters, we won the game”. Both of these quotes trouble me. “Managing the Game” only works when you do it for the duration. Our defense was terrible in the 4th quarter. Our front three was nothing short of sad, our pass rush was horrible, and Weddle and Gregory kept getting absolutely trampled by their runners. Not good enough. To be content with avoiding a disaster at the last second is not good enough. I will say it again, this team does not have a killer instinct, it does not have the ability to stick the knife in, and it lacks toughness. The on field leadership simply fails them and anything out of the ordinary or contrary to what they have game-planned (read: Tebow) throws them into utter disarray. Our remaining schedule is a murderer’s row: Jets, Raiders twice, Packers, Ravens, Bears, and the upstart Lions and Bills. Those are tough teams that hit hard. I don’t like the matchups, folks. Will the bye week get us going…well, it cannot hurt.

Let me close with some positives, because really, there are a number of them. 4-1. That is a huge positive. We are finishing games with wins. We are dominating statistically (40 minutes to 20 yesterday in possession). We are getting first downs and moving the ball well. Perhaps most importantly, we are overcoming injuries. Let’s be fair, no Gates again yesterday…Tolbert AND Mathews leave the game with injuries…leaving Hester to take all the reps and moving McMichael into a fullback role. That is not easy. Floyd and Jackson are clearly nowhere near 100%. Two starters out on our defensive line for weeks now. Again, that is not easy. We have overcome a lot thus far. Hopefully, Gates will return against the Jets (he says he will). Hopefully, Mathews is not badly injured (it looked pretty bad). Hopefully, Tolbert can be taught to keep his helmet on (I hear they have seminars on that). We must hope folks….because that is what makes it fun. Having hope. And at 4-1….we have plenty of it. Enjoy the week off Boyz…heal up….toughen up….lets keep it going.