This post is on the building of a team. I am one of those guys who enjoys the NFL Draft. I don’t stay up all night, reading draft notes and watching film. I don’t subscribe to Mel Kiper’s “Big Board” or Rivals.com’s “Player Ratings”. But I do enjoy it. I enjoy the scavenger hunt-quality it has; the game of trying to find guys out there that fit your team from a position standpoint and from an attitude standpoint. I enjoy it as much for its hits as for its misses. So many times, the “can’t miss” player is a horrible bust. And so many times, the undrafted guy becomes a star. That is pretty cool. The Chargers’ drafts have been an extremely telling indicator of the success of the team. I did a little looking around and the results are very interesting in showing why we had years of futility, followed by a period of success, followed by what appears to be a significant fall from grace. Read on for a bit of Charger history.
We start following the Super Bowl year of 1994-1995. The team Bobby Beathard assembled at that point was a mix of key draftees (Natrone Means, Leslie O’Neal, Junior Seau, Chris Mims, Rodney Harrison, etc.) but just as many were cast-offs from other teams that just gelled with the Chargers (Stan Humphries, Tony Martin, Ronnie Harmon, Linebackers Gibson and Griggs). Beathard had long been cast as a genius in the Draft; finding guys out of small schools who fit well and excelled. He built a great team in Washington and then, in a few short years, had the Chargers in the Super Bowl. The problem was, after 1994 and the Chargers rise to the Super Bowl as the “youngest team in the League”, he bought into his own so-called “genius” and starting going on weird hunches and grabbing guys who just made no sense. He also employed the same maddening tactic year after year: trading away the next year’s first round pick for a guy he really liked in the second round. This was all ego. Check the drafts from 1995-2000. We had a grand total of ONE first round pick in those six years….and guess who it was? Ryan Leaf. All these hunch plays? Busts. All these small college guys…no good. One year, 1997, we took two guys from North Carolina A&T and two guys from South Carolina State….where!?
History will show that after that Super Bowl year, Bobby Beathard drafted 6 more years worth of players for the Chargers. In those 6 years, Beathard drafted a total of 50 players. Incredibly, only 6 of those players even saw significant, meaningful playing time. They are:
Terrance Shaw, Cornerback (’95)
Terrell Fletcher, Running Back (’95)
Craig Whelihan, Quarterback (’95)
Ryan Leaf, Quarterback (’98)
Jamal Williams, Nose Tackle (’98)
Damion McIntosh, Offensive Line (’00)
In looking at this list, it can safely be said that only 2 players out of these 50 had a significant, positive impact on the team: Jamal Williams was a stud at NT for many years and Terrell Fletcher was a good solid third down running back and playmaker. That is it, an unbelievably low 4% success rate. And I am setting the bar pretty low here…I am just commenting on players who saw a lot of time and made a positive impact over the course of their time as Chargers. I would like to include someone like McIntosh, who was a pretty good lineman, but he spent most of his career elsewhere. Or Terrance Shaw or Craig Whelihan, who both tried hard, but their contributions were just too minimal. There are entire drafts (1996, 1997, and 1999) where not a single player made an impact or even had a positive contribution. Amazing. And, the results bore that out. We were the worst team in the League over that stretch, even going 1-15 in the 2000 season. That was it for Beathard, who the Spanos family stubbornly held onto despite the fact the game and the rest of the League had passed him by. Hmmmmm….sounds all too familiar to you all, doesn’t it?
Once John Butler and AJ Smith took over, look at the next 6 years. During this period, the exact same number of players were drafted as the previous 6 years (50). Of these, 25 players had a positive impact and saw significant playing time, a massive change in success rate from 4% to 50%. These players are:
LaDaininan Tomlinson, Running Back (’01)
Drew Brees, Quarterback (’01)
Carlos Polk, Linebacker (’01)
Quentin Jammer, Corner (’02)
Tonio Fonoti, Offensive Line (’02)
Ben Leber, Linebacker (’02)
Terrance Kiel, Safety (’03)
Drayton Florence, Corner (’03)
Matt Wilhelm, Linebacker (’03)
Mike Scifres, Punter (’03)
Philip Rivers, Quarterback (they actually drafted Eli Manning) (’04)
Nate Kaeding, Kicker (’04)
Nick Hardwick, Center (’04)
Shaun Phillips, Linebacker (’04)
Michael Turner, Running Back (’04)
Shane Olivea, Offensive Lineman (’04)
Shawne Merriman, Linebacker (’05)
Luis Castillo, Defensive Lineman (’05)
Vincent Jackson, Wide Receiver (’05)
Darren Sproles, Running Back (’05)
Scott Mrczkowski, Offensive Lineman (’05)
Antonio Cromartie, Corner (’06)
Marcus McNeil, Offensive Lineman (’06)
Tim Dobbins, Linebacker (’06)
Jeromey Clary, Offensive Lineman (’06)
The drafts in 2004-2006 show you clearly why we were among the best teams in the league at that point. Even players drafted in the late rounds in these years were solid pros, and some were all-pros (Turner, Sproles). Add in non-drafted players such as Antonio Gates and Kris Dielman and free agent additions like Randall Godfrey, Donnie Edwards and Keenan McCardell and we were pretty formidable. Clear to see that some years of good drafts put us in the garden spot. Now, it is also clear that better players make other players better. Players like Terrance Shaw or Damien McIntosh would have surely made the list had they played alongside better players. But, it is what it is, you need to look at cold hard facts.
Since the ’06 Draft and 06-07 playoff teams, we have struggled in the Draft. It should really be no surprise to any of us that our team’s overall performance has dipped significantly. Here is an accounting of players from our last three drafts that have made a positive contribution.
Eric Weddle (’07)
Antoine Cason (’08)
Jake Hester (’08)
Louis Vazquez (’09)
Vaughn Martin (’09)**
Tyronne Green (’09)**
If we take the 2007-2009 drafts, we are looking at 19 players selected and 4 that have had a positive impact (although Cason is struggling). This is a 21% success rate. I put asterisks next to Vaughn Martin and Tyronne Green. I think both of these guys might be positive contributors, but as backups forced into action by injuries, their body of work is just too small. Additionally, I just cannot include draft picks like Brandon Siler or Legadu Naanee on the list. Guys like that were good bit players, but the bottom line was that they were released rather than re-signed to another contract. I think it is too early to grade out the 2010 draft but Ryan Mathews and Donald Butler are starters and Darrell Stuckey and Cam Thomas are still on the team and playing so who knows. Too early also to see if 2011 draftees like Corey Luiget, Marcus Gilchrist, Vincent Brown, Jonas Mouton, or Shareece Wright will end up as positives. A bigger problem than the 21% success rate I see is in the utter lack of IMPACT players. I define IMPACT players as guys who make a real difference…guys who change the attitude of a team. Since those great drafts in 04-06, who would you put on a real impact list since? Weddle? Maybe. All of the others might fit into the system, but they are not making a true IMPACT. We have not drafted a real difference maker since 2005. In addition, we really have not added any IMPACT free agents. Part of AJ’s belief system (read: ego) is that he puts a lot of stock on his own picks rather than bringing in outside big names. Who can we point to in recent years that has really made an impact after being brought in? Answer: Not one player. That is the truth. I would like to add Kevin Burnett, but really, we did not re-sign him and his contributions were marginal. When looking at the lack of IMPACT players….It is especially clear when you look at our first round draft picks over the past years. Please review the last 11 first round picks and note the recent drop off.
2001 – LaDainian Tomlinson – Enough Said.
2002 – Quentin Jammer – Has been a solid, upper tier corner for his entire career. Never an all pro, never great, he has just been steady every year. A great character guy and a great teammate too.
2003 – Sammy Davis – One of the worst picks of the AJ Smith era. Chargers took two corners and a safety with their first three picks this year. The smart money was that the Chargers would take Troy Polamalu…he was a So Cal guy and wanted to play here. Davis rarely saw the field and when he did he was awful. Polamalu, taken a few picks later, has been one of the best players in the League.
2004 – Eli Manning. Became Philip Rivers—Enough Said
2005—Shawne Merriman – Arguably the best defensive player in the league (except maybe Ray Lewis) for his first three years. Then steroid withdrawal, injuries, and character issues ruined his career.
2006 – Antonio Cromartie – Huge entrance into the League and massive first two years but a head case who is a spotty player and a solid #2 corner at best with the Jets.
2007 – Buster Davis – A complete bust as a player. Never made an impact, even in preseason games. Cut this year and to my knowledge not playing anywhere. Rivals Sammy Davis as worst AJ pick ever.
2008 – Antoine Cason – A very frustrating player. He had a good rookie year followed by a bad 2009 where he lost his job. A very good year in 2010 and looked to be on the verge of being mentioned among the top corners out there. Had big slips of confidence and just some horrible games this past year. Jury is out, but he does not have much time.
2009 – Larry English – Another complete bust so far. He was a reach as a small college player with good character whom they thought could make the leap and actually replace Merriman. He never did. Often injured and always ineffective, he is out with a broken foot and he has one more year to do something positive. Sad thing is, unlike Buster Davis, he has tried really hard.
2010 – Ryan Mathews – He has shown flashes of being a great back but he struggles with injuries, fumbling and confidence. I think the team is hurting his confidence by continually subbing him in and out when he is healthy. Despite this, he has been strong recently and if he continues to hold onto the ball, it looks positive. We shall see.
2011 – Corey Luiget – Have not seen enough of him to know. He has not been as quick to make an impact as the team had hoped. Still, played in all 16 games as a rookie and probably will be a useful, if not dynamic, player.
So, there you have it. Hardly the list of impact players you hope for out of the first round. There was a period where I think any draft geek out there would have said the drafts that AJ and John Butler had made from 2001 through 2006 were the best in the League. No longer. Hopefully, the end of this year will bring an infusion of new blood. You cannot rely completely on the Draft of course, and the recently completed free-agency period is probably more important. But a period of solid drafting where several positive players and perhaps an IMPACT player is added each year is critical. Look at teams like New England, San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore, Pitt, and the Packers. Just a series of solid drafts that continue to build depth and attitude like the Bolts did in the middle ‘00s. We just don’t have it right now. Let’s get it back.
POSTSCRIPT: My favorite Charger draft story must be told. It isn’t Ryan Leaf, because in 1998 we needed a QB and he was very, very good in college. I remember seeing an interview with Marty Schottenheimer, then coaching the Chiefs, who said more than half of the NFL coaches and GMs favored Leaf over Peyton Manning. The Chargers did not. They wanted Manning. But, the Colts were not budging and the Chargers needed a blockbuster. Most everyone thought they both would succeed. And, my favorite Draft story is not the spurning of dog-killer Mike Vick in 2001 and trading down for LT and Drew Brees. It also isn’t watching Eli Manning’s sad sack, jughead face in 2004 as he was forced to hold up a Charger jersey on national television with his big frown after having been drafted against his will. No, my favorite Draft story happens in the year 2000. Head coach Mike Riley liked a QB in that draft. We did not have a 1st round pick that year (as usual under Beathard) and Riley knew that Beathard would not let him take a QB early since they were still trying to make Ryan Leaf work out. So, he let the second and third rounds go. Reportedly (and I have a great source) he BEGGED Beathard to just give him a draft pick in the 4th round. He wanted to take a kid out of Michigan named Tom Brady to be a backup to Leaf. Beathard would not give him either of the team’s 4th round picks. Riley figured that Brady would be gone but he was still there in the 6th round and supposedly it got heated as Riley was still begging. Beathard would not give him a 6th round pick either, and Brady ultimately was taken toward the end of the 6th round. Here are the three guys the Chargers took with those picks that Beathard would not give his head coach, despite Ryan Leaf’s epic failures in his first two years:
| 4 | Miami (OH) | |
| 4 | Auburn | |
| 6 | Virginia |
Ever heard of ‘em? Enough Said.
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