BOLT ANALYSIS: THE STATE OF THINGS AND THE END OF AN ERA

Hello All! It has been quite a long time since the ANALYSIS checked in with ya’ll. We have all been riveted by the tragic events in Boston and Texas so allow a diversion to some brainless sports news. We are now on the cusp of the beginning of the NFL season. I know...you are looking around the Sports World..you see the NHL Season coming to an end, the NBA playoff matchups set, baseball has started, the Kruckeberg family is still basking in the afterglow of yet another cash-in on Final Four bracketology...the Kentucky Derby looms. Who cares about football? Well, the ANALYSIS does. The NFL makes the release of their schedule a massive event. The release of the schedule to a breathless sports nation last night brought few surprises, but at least it got the football juices flowing again. It makes what you are about to read more important, and more timely.

Before we get to the schedule however, we must discuss what has occurred since the last posting. In the last installment, I explained the situation with our new coach and GM. McCoy and Telesco, two 40-somethings who have taken over for the fossilized Norv Turner and the anti-Christ (like) figure of AJ Smith. I penned my hopes for a change in attitude that these new youthful leaders could impart. I wondered about some of the key decisions that would be made in the coming offseason and free agency period.  Well.....followers.....it has been very, very interesting. This offseason and free agency period (to date) can only be described as: Scorched Earth. The new kids on the block have taken a sledgehammer to this team. If any of us were clinging to same last, sad, vestige of hope that our current lineup was NFL-suitable, you may now release hope.  At the conclusion of the season, the ANALYSIS pondered the future of many Charger starters and key players, and whether they would remain with the team. Under Norv and AJ, we had always had a penchant to hold on to existing players (even against their will-and with some painful exceptions) and not spend a bunch of money on outside free agents. This ended last season with AJ’s sad and desperate attempt to sign Jared Gaither (bust), Robert Meacham (bust), Eddie Royal (bust), and Jarret Johnson (OK player). The ANALYSIS opined that the Bolts would try and retain a couple of their free agents and continue to try and build around them. The three players that held the most interest were Antoine Cason, Louis Vasquez, and Vaughn Martin. Decisions about those players would probably give a strong indication which way we were going as a team. Well...take a look at what has happened since McCoy and Telesco took over.

The Chargers have released the following starters: Atari Bigby, Randy McMichael, Takeo Spikes, Antonio Garay, and Jared Gaither.  Of these released players, only Garay (Jets) has signed with another team.

The Chargers also allowed the following players to be signed elsewhere without any sort of offer or fight:   Louis Vasquez (Broncos-4 years), Antoine Cason (Cardinals-1 years), Antwan Barnes (Jets-- 3 years), Aubrayo Franklin (Colts), and Vaughn Martin (Dolphins).

Of this group, only Vasquez received what can be considered a big contract (from our Rivals the Broncos no less). The rest of these guys are pickups for depth and maybe spot starters.

Perhaps most telling however, is the list of players who are former Chargers that now have no contract. The Chargers have shown no interest in these guys, NOR HAS ANY OTHER TEAM TO DATE:

Tyronne Green, Quentin Jammer, Shaun Phillips, Brandyn Dombrowski, Dante Rosario, Jackie Battle, and Corey Lynch. 

These guys may come back...or get signed by another team later in the process, but the point is that nobody wanted them now.  The only player offered a deal by the Chargers was Denario Alexander, last year’s surprise receiving star. We will know in the next few days whether he sticks around.

So, like I said...Scorched Earth! VERY telling is the fact that these players have not been picked up. It tells you....they were not very good, were getting paid too much, and are not the guys you build around. You might say, OK..well we dropped all of the Norv/AJ players, that must mean we are spending lots of money on Free Agents that McCoy and Telesco like?  Uh, well, check out this murderers row of players we have signed:

Richard Goodman (WR), Doug Rinehart (OG), Rich Ohrnberger (OG), Jarius Wynn (DE), Cornelius Brown (DE), Deon Butler (WR),  King Dunlap (OT),  Danny Woodhead (RB), Dan DePalma (WR), Dallas Walker (TE),  Mike Windt (LS), Nick Novak (K), Derek Cox (CB), John Phillips (TE).

Heard of any of ‘em?  Yeah, not really. Danny Woodhead did very well with the Patriots...and Derek Cox is a true starter at cornerback (and probably a pound for pound clone of Cason) but other than that this is a group of backups and fill ins. At best.

So, where does this leave the team? The ANALYSIS has NO...CLUE. No clue folks. They are certainly no better than they were last year, and perhaps not too much worse? Don’t know. What is the Plan? What is Telesco doing? I would say this is a true attempt to begin to build again through the Draft. It is a long range plan to get rid of all of AJ and Norv’s dead weight...to get rid of dead money paid to athletes who are now released, and to slowly build the team back through smart draft picks. That is the only, and I mean only, explanation. Again, Scorched Earth policy.

Which brings me to next week’s Draft. The NFLs three day love affair with itself. Usually, the ANALYSIS provides incisive, daring, and, yes, somewhat amazing prognostics on the Draft. I would stack up the ANALYSIS’ track record against any pundit in identifying positions and even players that the Chargers would go after. This year...not gonna happen. The Chargers really have zero areas that do not need work. Think of the offensive line....two starters remain and they don’t like one of them (Clary). Think of the secondary...only Weddle remains from last year as a starter. Think of the linebacking corps...Donald Butler a bright spot but we are still waiting for Larry English and Melvin Ingram and Jonas Mouton to make a dent. Defensive line OK but can Cam Thomas cut it as a starting nose tackle. What about the offense...does anyone believe that Rivers can still excel in this mobile and increasingly fast League? Does anyone believe Ryan Mathews is the answer at RB? Does anyone think Gates has years left?  I have no answers to these questions followers. I simply must say that the Draft will be as much as a surprise to the ANALYSIS as it will be to you.

So..now to the schedule. Well...again, the ANALYSIS used to spend time running down the list of teams on the docket...thinking about matchups...and guessing (I mean selecting) wins and losses. I would often ask for your best estimate of the team’s finishing record. Again...not gonna happen. Our last three seasons have gone 8-8, 9-7, 7-9. We lose to horrible teams...we have beaten great teams. With so few of our old players remaining...I aint guessin’. I do know that we open at home on Monday Night Football against the Texans and I do know we play another Monday Night game against Indy (also at home). Other than that folks, you wont see the Chargers on primetime. I would say we must look at this as a year of low expectations with the hope (always the hope) that we will win some games.

Which brings me to my final point. I will be back with a post-Draft ANALYSIS that will set the stage for the 2013 season. But, with that, I must announce that my Post-Draft ANALYSIS will be my last. Yes...the ANALYSIS is folding the tent.  I stated late last year that the ANALYSIS is much like a shark, swimming through the monochromatic depths of the open ocean. It must move forward, or it dies. After nearly 5 years of providing the type of coverage that readers demand, nay, RELY on in their daily lives, I must move on. I have done all I can do...I cannot continue to move forward. There are other blogs to write, other topics to cover.  Just like Sting disbanding The Police at the height of stardom, or Harper Lee never writing a follow up to “To Kill a Mockingbird”....the ANALYSIS is going out on top.

Do not despair, followers. I still love the Chargers. I always will. I was the guy listening on the radio in my parked car on a late rainy Oregon night to a Charger broadcast during an 8-8 season because it was not on TV. I was the guy who had his stomach in a knot as I painted my house listening to John Carney kick a 54 yard field goal against the Chiefs to go 1-15 and avoid a 0-16 season. I was the guy who dutifully monitored the TV whilst in Hawaii tracking the Chargers 2004 draft. I am that guy. And I will always be a fan. But, the ANALYSIS has run its course. As the Chargers turn the page with new coaches and GM, so does the ANALYSIS.

Ironically, I will be in Hawaii again during the 2013 Draft. Upon my return, I will fill you in on what the Chargers did, and what it means for the future. Hope, no doubt, will spring eternal again.